Migration Processes in the Light of Frozen Conflicts in the South Caucasus

Katarzyna Kącka, Joanna Piechowiak

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/AE.2020.023

Abstrakt


MIGRATION PROCESSES IN THE LIGHT OF FROZEN CONFLICTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

 

Frozen conflicts are a specific category: they often remain unsolved for many years and lead to tense geopolitical situations. The South Caucasus is a place where the interests of many actors intersect, and the players profit from the freezing and unfreezing of conflicts that cause crises and thus destabilize the region. The goal of this research is to analyze the influence of frozen conflicts and their course on the migration processes in the South Caucasus region. Questions thus arise: 1) whether tension caused by an unsolved conflict significantly influences population flow, and 2) whether after unfreezing there is a one-time refugee migration and the exiles return to re-settle the disputed territory after the conflict (or a series of incidents) has been frozen. To find the answers, the study focuses on the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, the Abkhaz-Georgian conflict, the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh War. The analysis of migration flows reveals that frozen conflicts have a significant impact on forced migrations, and that the majority of exiles do not return to their former homes when the conflict is temporarily frozen. For refugees, this means permanent, decades-long change in their place of residence, loss of property and the necessity to rebuild their lives. However, there seems to be no particular pattern of population resettlement in relation to unfreezing conflicts.


 

PROCESY MIGRACYJNE A ZAMROŻONE KONFLIKTY NA KAUKAZIE POŁUDNIOWYM

 

Zamrożone konflikty są szczególną kategorią konfliktów, które często przez wiele lat pozostają nierozwiązane i są przyczyną napiętej sytuacji geopolitycznej. Na Kaukazie Południowym krzyżują się interesy wielu graczy, dla których korzystne jest rozmrażanie i zamrażanie konfliktów powodujących kryzysy i tym samym destabilizację regionu. Celem badań jest analiza wpływu zamrożonych konfliktów i ich przebiegu na procesy migracyjne w regionie Kaukazu Południowego. Powstały zatem pytania: 1) czy napięcie spowodowane brakiem rozwiązania konfliktu wpływa znacząco na przepływ ludności, a także 2) czy po rozmrożeniu mamy do czynienia z jednorazową migracją uchodźczą a po zamrożeniu konfliktu lub fali incydentów następuje powrót uchodźców i ponowne zasiedlenie spornego terytorium. W tym celu dokonano analizy konfliktu gruzińsko-osetyjskiego, gruzińsko-abchaskiego, wojny rosyjsko-gruzińskiej z 2008 roku oraz wojny azersko-ormiańskiej o Górski Karabach. Analiza strumieni migracyjnych wskazuje na to, że zamrożone konflikty mają znaczący wpływ na przymusowe migracje, a większość uchodźców nie wraca do swoich domów, kiedy następuje czasowe zamrożenie. Oznacza to trwałą, liczoną w dekadach, zmianę miejsca zamieszkania i utratę majątku oraz konieczność budowania życia na nowo. Nie wydaje się jednak, aby istniał jakiś konkretny wzorzec przemieszczania się ludności w związku z rozmrażaniem konfliktów.

 


Słowa kluczowe


migrations; frozen conflicts; South Caucasus; Abkhazia; South Ossetia; Nagorno-Karabakh; migracje; zamrożone konflikty; Kaukaz Południowy; Abchazja; Osetia Południowa; Górski Karabach

Pełny tekst:

PDF

Bibliografia


Ambrosio, Thomas. “Unfreezing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict? Evaluating peacemaking efforts under the Obama administration.” Ethnopolitics 10, no. 1 (2011): 93–114.

Amnesty International. Civilians in the Line of Fire: The Georgia-Russia Conflict. London: Amnesty International Publications, 2008. Accessed 11 June 2010. https://www.amnesty. org/download/Documents/52000/eur040052008eng.pdf.

Arbatova, Nadezhda. “Frozen Conflicts and European Security.” Security Index 16, no. 3 (2010).

Artman, Vincent M. “Documenting territory: Passportisation, territory, and exception in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” Geopolitics 18, no. 3 (2013): 682–704.

Astrov, Alexander, ed. The great power (mis)management: the Russian-Georgian war and its implications for global political order. Farnham: Ashgate Publishing, 2011.

Betts, Alexander. Forced migration and global politics. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2009.

Boyle, Paul, Keith Halfacree and Vaughan Robinson. Exploring contemporary migration. London and New York: Routledge, 2014.

Brodawski, Jan. Gruzja po rewolucji róż: Obraz przemian polityczno-społecznych w latach 2003–2018. Kraków: Księgarnia Akademicka, 2019.

Bryc, Agnieszka. “Bezpieczeństwo w poradzieckim ładzie międzynarodowym.” In Bezpieczeństwo obszaru poradzieckiego, eds. Agnieszka Bryc, Agnieszka Legucka and Agata Włodkowska-Bagan. Warszawa: Difin, 2011.

Bryc, Agnieszka. Rosja w XXI wieku. Gracz światowy czy koniec gry? Warszawa: Wydawnictwa Akademickie i Profesjonalne, 2009.

Castles, Stephen. “The international politics of forced migration.” Development 46, no. 3 (2003): 11–20.

Clogg, Rachel. “The politics of identity in post-Soviet Abkhazia: managing diversity and unresolved conflict.” Nationalities Papers 36, no. 2 (2008): 305–329.

Cornell, Svante E. The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict. Uppsala: Uppsala Universitet, 1999.

Dale, Catherine. “The dynamics and challenges of ethnic cleansing: The Georgia–Abkhazia case.” Refugee Survey Quarterly 16, no. 3 (1997): 77–109.

Dembińska, Magdalena and Frederic Mérand, “The role of international brokers in frozen conflicts: the case of Transnistria,” Asia Europe Journal 1, no. 1 (2019): 15–30.

Fernández-Molina, Irene and Raquel Ojeda-García. “Western Sahara as a hybrid of a parastate and a state-in-exile: (Extra) territoriality and the small print of sovereignty in a context of frozen conflict.” Nationalities Papers 48, no. 1 (2020): 83–99.

Fournier, Anna. “From frozen conflict to mobile boundary: Youth perceptions of territoriality in war-time Ukraine.” East European Politics and Societies 32, no. 1 (2018): 23–55.

Gachechiladze, Revaz. “Geopolitics in the South Caucasus: local and external players.” Geopolitics 7, no. 1 (2002): 113–138.

Ganguly, Sumit, Michal Smetana, Sannia Abdullah and Ales Karmazin. “India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir dispute: unpacking the dynamics of a South Asian frozen conflict.” Asia Europe Journal 17, no. 1 (2019): 129–143.

German, Tracey. “The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia: Security Issues in the Caucasus.” Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs 32, no. 2 (2012): 216–229.

Geukjian, Ohannes. Ethnicity, nationalism and conflict in the South Caucasus: Nagorno-Karabakh and the legacy of Soviet nationalities policy. London: Routledge, 2016.

Górecki, Wojciech. Abchaskie elity wobec niepodległości. Studia i Materiały/Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych 103 (1996).

Górecki, Wojciech. “Abchazja.” In Konflikty zbrojne na obszarze poradzieckim. Stan obecny, perspektywy uregulowania, konsekwencje, ed. Krzysztof Strachota, Wojciech Górecki and Maciej Falkowski. Warszawa: Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich, 2003.

Grant, Thomas D. “Frozen Conflicts and International Law.” Cornell International Law Journal 50 (2017): 361.

Issac, Julius. Economics of migration. New York: Routledge, 2013.

Karagiannis, Emmanuel. “The 2008 Russian–Georgian war via the lens of Offensive Realism.” European Security 22, no. 1 (2013): 74–93.

Klever, Emma. “The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan: An overview of the current situation.” European Movement 24 (2013).

Kolossov, Vladimir and John O’Loughlin. “After the wars in the South Caucasus state of Georgia: Economic insecurities and migration in the ‘de facto’ states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.” Eurasian Geography and Economics 52, no. 5 (2011): 631–654.

Kolstø, Pal and Helge Blakkisrud. “Living with non-recognition: State-and nation-building in South Caucasian quasi-states.” Europe-Asia Studies 60, no. 3 (2008): 483–509.

Lee, Everett S. “A theory of migration.” Demography 3, no. 1 (1966): 49.

MacFarlane, S. Neil. “Frozen Conflicts in the Former Soviet Union — The Case of Georgia/South Ossetia.” In OSCE Yearbook 2008, ed. IFSH (Baden Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2009), 23–34.

Markedonov, Sergey. “Unfreezing Conflict in South Ossetia: Regional and International Implications. Reassessing Security in the South Caucasus.” Regional Conflicts and Trans¬formation (2011): 33–46.

Martin, Philip. “Economic aspects of migration.” In Migration theory: Talking across discip¬lines, eds. Caroline B. Brettell and James F. Hollifield. New York: Routledge, 2014.

McAdam, Jane. Climate change, forced migration, and international law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2012.

O’Lear, Shannon and Robert Whiting. “Which comes first, the nation or the state? A multiple scale model applied to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Caucasus.” National Identities 10, no. 2 (2008): 185–206.

O’loughlin, John, Vladimir Kolossov and Gerard Toal. “Inside the post-Soviet de facto states: a comparison of attitudes in Abkhazia, Nagorny Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Transnistria.” Eurasian Geography and Economics 55, no. 5 (2014): 423–456.

Özkan, Behlül. “Who gains from the ‘no war no peace’ situation? A critical analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.” Geopolitics 13, no. 3 (2008): 572–599.

Petersen, Alexandros. “The 1992–93 Georgia-Abkhazia War: A Forgotten Conflict.” Caucasian Review of International Affairs 2, no. 4 (2008): 187–199.

Piechowiak-Lamparska, Joanna. “International risk factors occurring in the Caspian Sea region.” Athenaeum 56 (2017): 193–204.

Ritchey, P. Neal. “Explanations of migration.” Annual Review of Sociology 2, no. 1 (1976): 363–404.

Rogstad, Adrian. “The Next Crimea? Getting Russia’s Transnistria Policy Right.” Problems of Post-Communism 65, no. 1 (2018): 49–64.

Simão, Licinia. “The problematic role of EU democracy promotion in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 45, no. 1–2 (2012): 193–200.

Sotiriou, Stylianos A. “The Irreversibility of History: The Conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.” Problems of Post-Communism 66, no. 3 (2019): 172–185.

Souleimanov, Emil. Understanding ethnopolitical conflict: Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia wars reconsidered. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2013.

Stępniewski, Tomasz. Geopolityka regionu Morza Czarnego w pozimnowojennym świecie. Lublin-Warszawa: Instytut Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, 2011.

Szpak, Agnieszka. “Secesja państwa w świetle prawa międzynarodowego (na przykładzie Koso-wa i Krymu).” Państwo i Prawo 12 (2014): 38–53.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Background Note on the Protection of Asylum Seekers and Refugees in Georgia. (2005). Accessed 11 June 2020. https://www.refworld. org/docid/472756782.html.

UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). UNHCR publication for CIS Conference (Displacement in the CIS) — Conflicts in the Caucasus (1996). Accessed 10 Jun 2020. https://www.unhcr.org/uk/publications/refugeemag/3b5583fd4/unhcr-publication-cis-conference-displacement-cis-conflicts-caucasus.html.

United Nations. Status of internally displaced persons and refugees from Abkhazia, Georgia, and the Tshkinvali region/South Ossetia, Georgia: Report of the Secretary-General (2014). Accessed 12 Jun 2020. https://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/68/868.

Waal, Thomas de. “Remaking the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.” Survival 52, no. 4 (2010): 159–176.

Welt, Cory. “The thawing of a frozen conflict: the internal security dilemma and the 2004 prelude to the Russo-Georgian War.” Europe-Asia Studies 62, no. 1 (2010): 63–97.

Wood, William B. “Forced migration: local conflicts and international dilemmas.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 84, no. 4 (1994): 607–634.

Włodkowska-Bagan, Agata. Rywalizacja mocarstw na obszarze poradzieckim. Warszawa: Difin, 2013.

Zabyelina, Yuliya and Anna Markovska. “Ukraine: organised crime, politics and frozen conflicts.” In Handbook of Organised Crime and Politics, eds. Felia Allum and Stan Gilmour, 105–118. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2019.








ISSN 2084-3550 (print)
ISSN 2391-7911 (online)

Partnerzy platformy czasopism