Migration Processes in the Light of Frozen Conflicts in the South Caucasus
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/AE.2020.023Słowa kluczowe
migrations, frozen conflicts, South Caucasus, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh, migracje, zamrożone konflikty, Kaukaz Południowy, Abchazja, Osetia Południowa, Górski KarabachAbstrakt
MIGRATION PROCESSES IN THE LIGHT OF FROZEN CONFLICTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
Frozen conflicts are a specific category: they often remain unsolved for many years and lead to tense geopolitical situations. The South Caucasus is a place where the interests of many actors intersect, and the players profit from the freezing and unfreezing of conflicts that cause crises and thus destabilize the region. The goal of this research is to analyze the influence of frozen conflicts and their course on the migration processes in the South Caucasus region. Questions thus arise: 1) whether tension caused by an unsolved conflict significantly influences population flow, and 2) whether after unfreezing there is a one-time refugee migration and the exiles return to re-settle the disputed territory after the conflict (or a series of incidents) has been frozen. To find the answers, the study focuses on the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, the Abkhaz-Georgian conflict, the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 and the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh War. The analysis of migration flows reveals that frozen conflicts have a significant impact on forced migrations, and that the majority of exiles do not return to their former homes when the conflict is temporarily frozen. For refugees, this means permanent, decades-long change in their place of residence, loss of property and the necessity to rebuild their lives. However, there seems to be no particular pattern of population resettlement in relation to unfreezing conflicts.
PROCESY MIGRACYJNE A ZAMROŻONE KONFLIKTY NA KAUKAZIE POŁUDNIOWYM
Zamrożone konflikty są szczególną kategorią konfliktów, które często przez wiele lat pozostają nierozwiązane i są przyczyną napiętej sytuacji geopolitycznej. Na Kaukazie Południowym krzyżują się interesy wielu graczy, dla których korzystne jest rozmrażanie i zamrażanie konfliktów powodujących kryzysy i tym samym destabilizację regionu. Celem badań jest analiza wpływu zamrożonych konfliktów i ich przebiegu na procesy migracyjne w regionie Kaukazu Południowego. Powstały zatem pytania: 1) czy napięcie spowodowane brakiem rozwiązania konfliktu wpływa znacząco na przepływ ludności, a także 2) czy po rozmrożeniu mamy do czynienia z jednorazową migracją uchodźczą a po zamrożeniu konfliktu lub fali incydentów następuje powrót uchodźców i ponowne zasiedlenie spornego terytorium. W tym celu dokonano analizy konfliktu gruzińsko-osetyjskiego, gruzińsko-abchaskiego, wojny rosyjsko-gruzińskiej z 2008 roku oraz wojny azersko-ormiańskiej o Górski Karabach. Analiza strumieni migracyjnych wskazuje na to, że zamrożone konflikty mają znaczący wpływ na przymusowe migracje, a większość uchodźców nie wraca do swoich domów, kiedy następuje czasowe zamrożenie. Oznacza to trwałą, liczoną w dekadach, zmianę miejsca zamieszkania i utratę majątku oraz konieczność budowania życia na nowo. Nie wydaje się jednak, aby istniał jakiś konkretny wzorzec przemieszczania się ludności w związku z rozmrażaniem konfliktów.
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