Assessing the Russia-Ukraine War in 2024: Consequences and Scenarios of the Future
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/SDR.2024.EN8.07Słowa kluczowe
Federacja Rosyjska, Ukraina, wojna rosyjsko-ukraińska, międzynarodowy system bezpieczeństwa, Europa Środkowo-WschodniaAbstrakt
Artykuł bada supermocarstwowe aspiracje Federacji Rosyjskiej pod przywództwem prezydenta Władimira Putina, które osiągnęły punkt kulminacyjny w postaci inwazji militarnej na Ukrainę w lutym 2022 r. Niniejsza analiza ukazuje kilka fundamentalnych czynników odpowiedzialnych za zagrożenia, jakie mocarstwowa polityka Kremla stwarza dla współczesnych systemów bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego, a przede wszystkim dla porządku politycznego Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej, ale również dla całego świata.
Bibliografia
Bäcker R., Rak J.R., ‘(Dis)Engagement in the Russia-Ukraine War’, Politichnye Zhittya, no. 4 (2022).
Bambery Ch., ‘Reckless escalation in Ukraine war’, Counterfire, 27 June 2024, https://www.counter-fire.org/article/reckless-escalation-in-ukraine-war/.
Besson V., ‘The Ukraine/Russia conflict: an accelerator to the energy crisis’, KPMG, 8 Sep. 2022, https://kpmg.com/fr/fr/blogs/home/posts/2022/03/how-the-russia-ukraine-crisis-impacts-energy-industry.html.
Bullough O., ‘Welcome to Ukraine, the most corrupt nation in Europe’, Guardian, 6 Feb. 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in- europe-ukraine.
Carpenter T.G., ‘Many predicted NATO expansion would lead to war. Those warnings were ignored’, Guardian, 28 Feb. 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expan- sion-war-russia-ukraine.
Charap S., Priebe M., ‘Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict’, Rand, 7 June 2023, https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html.
Council of Europe, Res. 1988, 16 (9 Apr. 2014), http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/xref/xref-xml2html- en.asp?fileid=20873&lang=en.
Fix L., Kimmage M., ‘Putin’s Last Stand: The Promise and Peril of Russian Defeat’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 102, no. 1 (2023).
Gans J., ‘These 6 countries sided with Russia in UN vote on Ukraine war’, Hill, 23 Feb. 2023, https:// thehill.com/policy/international/3871761-these-6-countries-sided-with-russia-in-un-vote-on-ukraine-war/.
General Assembly, Res. 68/262 (1 Apr. 2014), https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/767883?ln=en.
General Assembly, Res. ES-11/2, Щ 1-2 (28 Mar. 2022), https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/un-documents/document/a-res-es-11-1.php.
General Assembly, Security Council, ‘General and Complete Disarmament Maintenance of International Security’, 19 Dec. 1994, https://www.securitycouncilreport.org/atf/cf/%7B65BFCF9B- 6D27-4E9C-8CD3-CF6E4FF96FF9%7D/s_1994_1399.pdf.
Gollom M., ‘How expelling Russia from SWIFT could impact the country. And why there’s reluctance to do so’, CBC News, 26 Feb. 2022, https://web.archive.org/web/20220226092109/https://www. cbc.ca/news/world/swift-sanctions-russia-banking-ukraine-1.6365146.
Heydarian R.J., ‘Fallout: Ukraine Crisis Upends Russia’s Role in the South China Sea’, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, 25 March 2022, https://amti.csis.org/fallout-ukraine-crisis-upends-russias-role-in-the-south-china-sea/.
Higgins A., ‘In Former Soviet States, a Tug of War Between East and West’, New York Times, 3 June 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/03/world/europe/russia-georgia-moldova-ukraine-war. html.
Hook K., ‘Why Russia’s War in Ukraine is a Genocide: Not Just a Land Grab, but a Bid to Expunge a Nation’, Foreign Affairs, 28 July 2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-russias-war-ukraine-genocide.
Hopkins V., MacFarquhar N., Erlanger S., Levenson M., ‘100 Days of War: Death, Destruction and Loss’, New York Times, 3 June 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/03/world/europe/russia- ukraine-war-100-days.html.
‘How many Ukrainian refugees are there and where have they gone?’, BBC, 4 July 2022, https:// www.bbc.com/news/world-60555472.
International Court of Justice, ‘Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, 5 June 2023 (Ukraine v. Russian Federation: 32 States intervening), https://www.icj-cij.org/case/182.
Kappeler A., Kleine Geschichte der Ukraine (München, 2014).
Kappeler A., Ungleiche Brüder: Russen und Ukrainer vom Mittelalter bis zur Gegenwart (München, 2023).
Karatnycky A., ‘Ukraine’s Orange Revolution’, Foreign Affairs, vol. 84, no. 2 (2005).
Kozyrev A., The Firebird: The Elusive Fate of Russian Democracy (Pittsburg, 2020).
Lamoreaux J.W., Flake L., ‘The Russian Orthodox Church, the Kremlin, and religious (il)liberalism in Russia’, Palgrave Communications, vol. 4, no. 1 (2018).
Lawless J., Wilson J., Corbet S., ‘NATO deems Russia its ‘most significant and direct threat’, AP News, 29 June 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-zelenskyy-politics-jens-stoltenberg-54c91903690f0d56537fa40ada88d83c.
Lovett I., Walker M., Luxmoore M., ‘Ukraine’s Offensive Begins with Ground Gained, Tanks Lost’, Wall Street Journal, 11 June 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-counteroffensive- notches-small-gains-after-costly-early-assaults-288c7907.
Mackinnon A., Gramer R., ‘The Battle to Save Ukraine’s Economy From the War’, Foreign Policy, 5 Oct. 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/05/russia-ukraine-war-reconstruction-european-bank-odile-renaud-basso/.
Matsuzato K., ‘The First Four Years of the Donetsk People’s Republic’, in: The War in Ukraine’s Donbas, ed. D.R. Marples (Budapest–Viena–New York, 2022).
‘Moscow “Not Ruling Out” Nuclear Deployment Amid U.S. Plans for Weapons in Germany’, Moscow Times, 18 July 2024, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/18/moscow-not-ruling-out- nuclear-deployment-amid-us-plans-for-weapons-in-germany-a85758.
Ng K., Ma Y., ‘How is China supporting Russia after it was sanctioned for Ukraine war?, BBC, 17 May 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/60571253.
Rumer E., Russia and the Security of Europe (Washington, 2016).
‘Russia-Ukraine Tensions: Putin Orders Troops to Separatist Regions and Recognizes Their Independence’, New York Times, 30 March 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ ukraine-russia-putin-biden.
‘So-called referenda in Russian-controlled Ukraine ‘cannot be regarded as legal’: UN political affairs chief ’, UN News, 27 Sep. 2022, https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1128161#:~:text=% E2%80%9CUnilateral%20actions%20aimed%20to%20provide,as%20legal%20under%20international%20law.%E2%80%9D.
Spencer R., ‘Ukrainians kill top Russian general with British-supplied missile’, Times, 12 July 2023, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrainians-kill-top-russian-general-with-british-supplied- missile-dxfkc5cqw.
Stepanenko K., ‘The Kremlin’s Pyrrhic Victory in Bakhmut: A Retrospective on the Battle for Bakhmut’, Institute for the Study of War, 24 May 2023, https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro- under/kremlin%E2%80%99s-pyrrhic-victory-bakhmut-retrospective-battle-bakhmut.
Taylor A., ‘Russia’s attack on Ukraine came after months of denials it would attack’, Washington Post, 24 Feb. 2022, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-russia-denials/.
‘UN resolution against Ukraine invasion: Full text’, Al Jazeera, 3 March 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/unga-resolution-against-ukraine-invasion-full-text.
Valero J., Bodoni S., Nardelli A., ‘EU Sees Legal Grounds to Use Seized Russian Central Bank Assets’, Bloomberg, 26 Jan. 2023, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-26/eu-sees- legal-grounds-to-use-seized-russian-central-bank-assets?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner.
Vedyashkin S., ‘Russia Shouldn’t Negotiate With “Vassal” Ukraine, Ex-President Medvedev Says’, Moscow Times, 11 Oct. 2021, https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/10/11/russia-shouldnt- negotiate-with-vassal-ukraine-ex-president-medvedev-says-a75263.
Walsh N.P., Dean S., Jeznach K., ‘From $7 graffiti to arson and a bomb plot: How Russia’s “shadow war” on NATO members has evolved’, CNN, 10 July 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/10/ europe/russia-shadow-war-nato-intl-latam/index.html.
Williams H., Hartigan K., MacKenzie L., Younis R., ‘Russian Nuclear Calibration in the War in Ukraine’, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, 23 Feb. 2024, https://www.csis.org/analysis/ russian-nuclear-calibration-war-ukraine.
Pobrania
Opublikowane
Jak cytować
Numer
Dział
Licencja
Utwór dostępny jest na licencji Creative Commons Uznanie autorstwa – Bez utworów zależnych 4.0 Międzynarodowe.
Statystyki
Liczba wyświetleń i pobrań: 87
Liczba cytowań: 0
