Can we expect re-emergence of infectious diseases in the near future?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/JEHS.2022.12.09.079Keywords
infectious diseases, epidemics, environmental factors, COVID-19, epidemiological transformation, the scientific Cassandra syndrome, public policy, health policyAbstract
Ever since Hippocrates expressed the view that environmental factors can influence disease incidence, attempts have been made to link the emergence of disease, especially outbreaks of infectious diseases, with the various factors that contribute to their occurrence. Among the possible causes favoring the spread of pathogens and the increase in the incidence of infectious diseases, environmental and social conditions are mentioned. An unprecedented set of new conditions has made the human population more vulnerable and more susceptible to infectious diseases than ever before. It is possible that the observed contemporary patterns of development and spread of infectious diseases may be seen as heralds of a new stage of epidemiological transformation characterized by an increased risk of infectious disease epidemics. In past centuries, one of the hallmarks of infectious disease plagues has been their unpredictability. Currently, warning forecasts prepared by scientists do not always translate into preventive measures.
References
Cartwright FE, Biddis M. Disease & History. The History Press Ltd. 1980.
Beaglehole R, Bonita R, Kjellström T. Podstawy Epidemiologii. Epidemiologia w ujęciu historycznym. Oficyna Wydawnicza Instytutu Medycyny Pracy im. prof. J. Nofera. Łódź. 2002:13.
Binns C, Lee SW, Low W-Y. Thomas McKeown: A true public health pioneer. Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health, 2002. 24(6): 893–895. http://www.jstor.org/stable/26724074
Omran AR. The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 1971. 49(4): 509–538.
Wróblewska W. Teoria przejścia epidemiologicznego oraz fakty na przełomie wieków w Polsce. Studia Demograficzne 1(155) 2009: 110-159. file:///C:/Users/admin/Downloads/2600-Article%20Text-4525-1-10-20201214.pdf [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Moos M. The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food. https://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/24/magazine/the-extraordinary-science-of-junk-food.html [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Neiderud CJ. How urbanization affects the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases. Infect Ecol Epidemiol. 2015 Jun 24;5:27060. doi: 10.3402/iee.v5.27060. PMID: 26112265; PMCID: PMC4481042.
Kelishadi R. "Environmental Pollution: Health Effects and Operational Implications for Pollutants Removal", Journal of Environmental and Public Health, vol. 2012, Article ID 341637, 2 pages, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1155/2012/341637
Benatar SR, Gill S, Bakker I. Global health and the global economic crisis. Am J Public Health. 2011 Apr;101(4):646-53. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2009.188458. Epub 2011 Feb 17. PMID: 21330597; PMCID: PMC3052329.
Salway SM, Payne N, Rimmer M, Buckner S, Jordan H, Adams J, Walters K, Sowden SL, Forrest L, Sharp L, Hidajat M, White M, Ben-Shlomo Y. Identifying inequitable healthcare in older people: systematic review of current research practice. Int J Equity Health. 2017 Jul 11;16(1):123. doi: 10.1186/s12939-017-0605-z. PMID: 28697768; PMCID: PMC5505033.
Olshansky SJ, Brianault A. The Fourth Stage of the Epidemiologic Transition: The Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases. The Milbank Quarterly, 1986. Vol. 64, No. 3: 355-397.
Zieliński A. Co rozumiemy pod pojęciem opracowania ogniska epidemicznego?. Przeg. Epid. 1999, 53, 3-4: 257-269.
Okada H, Kuhn C, Bach J-F, The ‘hygiene hypothesis’ for autoimmune and allergic diseases: an update. Vlin Exp Immunol. 2010 Apr; 160(1): 1-9.
Colisher CH, Childs JE, Field HE, Holmes KV, Schountz T. Bats: important reservoir hosts of emerging viruses. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 2006: 531–545.
Lederberg J. Pandemics as a natural evolutionary phenomenon. Social Res. 1988, 55: 343–359.
Rowińska-Zakrzewska E. Gruźlica i HIV na świecie, w Europie i w Polsce. Pneumonol. Alergol. Pol. 2013; 81: 499–501.
Longdon B, Hadfield JD, Day JP, Smith SCL, McGonigle JE, Cogni R, Cao C, Jiggins FM. The Causes and Consequences of Changes in Virulence following Pathogen Host Shifts. PLoS Pathog 2015. 11(3):e1004728. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1004728 [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Janik M. Dynamika rozwoju epidemii w zamkniętej populacji dla wybranych patogenów. Prace Nauk. Akad. J. Długosza w Częstochowie. Technika, Informatyka, Inżynieria Bezpieczeństwa. 2016, 4: 225–232. http://dx.doi.org/10.16926/tiib.2016.04.19.
Gliński Z, Żmuda A. Epidemie i pandemie chorób zakaźnych. Życie Weterynaryjne. 2020. 95(9): 554-560.
Dobrzańska J, Sawczuk-Chabin J, Warzocha K. Rola wirusów w etiopatogenezie chłoniaków nieziarniczych. Onkologia w Praktyce Klinicznej. 2006. Tom 2, nr 2, 64–72.
Baker RE, Mahmud AS, Miller IF, Rajeev M, Rasambainarivo F, Rice BL, Takahashi S, Tatem AJ, Wagner CE, Wang LF, Wesolowski A, Metcalf CJE. Infectious disease in an era of global change. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2022 Apr;20(4):193-205. doi: 10.1038/s41579-021-00639-z. Epub 2021 Oct 13. PMID: 34646006; PMCID: PMC8513385.
Spernovasilis N, Tsiodras S, Poulakou G. Emerging and Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases: Humankind’s Companions and Competitors. Microorganisms 2022, 10(1), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms10010098. [dostęp: 11.07.2022].
McArthur DB. Emerging Infectious Diseases. Nurs Clin North Am. 2019 Jun;54(2):297-311. doi: 10.1016/j.cnur.2019.02.006. Epub 2019 Mar 27. PMID: 31027668; PMCID: PMC7096727.
World Health Organization. Regional Office for South-East Asia. (2014). A brief guide to emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses. WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia. https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/204722.
World health statistics 2021: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development goals. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2021.
WHO Director General's statement following IHR Emergency Committee regarding the multi-country outbreak of monkeypox. https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-the-press-conference-following-IHR-emergency-committee-regarding-the-multi--country-outbreak-of-monkeypox--23-july-2022 [dostęp: 05.08.2022].
Węcławowicz G. Geografia społeczna miast. Zróżnicowania społeczno-przestrzenne. Wyd. Naukowe. PWN SA. Warszawa. 2003: 163.
Skórzyńska A. Przegląd Kulturoznawczy Nr 4 (46) 2020: 339–358 doi:10.4467/20843860PK.20.033.12837.
Rekordowa liczba pasażerów na lotniskach w Europie. Jak wypadło Lotnisko Chopina?. Business Insider Polska. 20.08.2017. https://businessinsider.com.pl/lifestyle/podroze/liczba-pasazerow-na-lotniskach-w-europie-w-2016-roku/38e1pgs [dostęp:11.07.2022]
World Tourist Organization. https://www.unwto.org/news/tourism-recovery-gains-momentum-as-restrictions-ease-and-confidence-returns. [dostęp: 20.07.2022].
Pracownicy delegowani w UE. Ekspert o pominięciu Polski w negocjacjach: Trwa walka o to, dla kogo Polacy będą pracować: dla Polski czy Francji [rozmowa Adrianny Rozwadowskiej z dr. Markiem Benio]. Gazeta Wyborcza. 18.08.2017.http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,22236965,dr-marek-benio-rewizja-unijnej-dyrektywy-to-walka-o-to-dla.html [dostęp: 22.01.2018].
Harvell CD, Mitchell CE, Ward JR, Altizer S, Dobson AP, Ostfeld RS, Samuel LD. Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota. Science. 2002;296(5576):2158–62.
Lafferty, KD, Mordecai EA. The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world. 2016. F1000Research, 5.
Hiramatsu K, Hanaki H, Ino T, Yabuta K, Oguri T, Tenover FC. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus clinical strain with reduced vancomycin susceptibility. J Antimicrob Chemother. 1997 Jul;40(1):135-6. doi: 10.1093/jac/40.1.135. PMID: 9249217.
Cevik M, Kuppalli K, Kindrachuk J, Peiris M. Virology, transmission, and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2. BMJ 2020;371:m3862. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3862.
Sette A, Crotty S. Adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Cell 2021;184(4):861-880. DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007.
Cevik M, Kuppalli K, Kindrachuk J, Peiris M. Virology, transmission, and pathogenesis ofSARS-CoV-2. BMJ 2020;371:m3862. DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m3862.
Sette A, Crotty S. Adaptive immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. Cell 2021;184(4):861-880. DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.01.007.
van Cleemput J , van Snippenberg W, Lambrechts L, Dendooven A, D’Onofrio V, Couck L, Trypsteen W, Vanrusselt J, Theuns S, Vereecke N, van den Bosch TPP, Lammens M, Driessen A, Achten R, Bracke KR, van den Broeck W, von der Thüsen J, Nauwynck H, van Dorpe J, Gerlo S, Maes P, Cox J, Vandekerckhove L. Organ-specific genome diversity of replicationcompetent SARS-CoV-2. Nature Communications. 2021. 12:6612 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26884-7. [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Karim F, Moosa MYS, Gosnell BI, Cele S, Giandhari J, Pillay S, Tegally H, Wilkinson E, San JE, Msomi N, Mlisana K, Khan K, Bernstein M, Manickchund N, Singh L, Ramphal U, COMMIT-KZN Team, Hanekom W, Lessells RJ, Sigal A, de Oliveira T. Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection and intra-host evolution in association with advanced HIV infection. medRxiv 2021.06.03.21258228; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.03.21258228. [dostęp: 01.06.2022].
Avanzato VA, Matson MJ, Seifert SN, Pryce R, Williamson BN, Anzick SL, Barbian K, Judson SD, Fischer ER, Martens C, Bowden TA, de Wit E, Riedo FX, Munster VJ. Case Study: Prolonged Infectious SARS-CoV-2 Shedding from an Asymptomatic Immunocompromised Individual with Cancer. Cell. 2020 Dec 23;183(7):1901-1912.e9. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2020.10.049. Epub 2020 Nov 4. PMID: 33248470; PMCID: PMC7640888. [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Mierzejewski J. O utrwalenie historycznej zasługi gen. K. Sosnkowskiego w ustanowieniu międzynarodowego zakazu stosowania broni bakteriologicznej. Post. Mikrobiolo. 38. 2. 1999: 205-209. https://www.microbiology.pl/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Zas%C5%82ugi-gen.-K.-Sosnkowskiego-w-ustanowieniu-zakazu-broni-biologicznej.pdf. [dostęp: 03.07.2022].
Nowicka PM, Kocik J. Zewnętrzne zagrożenia bezpieczeństwa zdrowotnego Polski. Studia BAS. Nr 4(56) 2018: 103–121.
Krajewski A. Rządy i uczeniu uwielbiają zabawy z wirusami. Gazeta Prawna. 2020. https://serwisy.gazetaprawna.pl/zdrowie/artykuly/1452799,koronawirus-laboratorium-chiny-bron-biologiczna.html. [dostęp: 20.07.2022].
Konwencja o zakazie prowadzenia badań, produkcji i gromadzenia zapasów broni bakteriologicznej (biologicznej) i toksycznej oraz o ich zniszczeniu, sporządzona w Moskwie, Londynie i Waszyngtonie dnia 10 kwietnia 1972 r. (Dz.U. z 1976 r., Nr 1, poz. 1).
Weaponizing Disease Repugnant, Secretary-General Says, Urging States to Improve Biosecurity on Anniversary of Biological Weapons Convention. https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sgsm20023.doc.htm [dostęp: 20.07.2022].
Menachery VD, Yount BL Jr, Debbink K, Agnihothram S, Gralinski LE, Plante JA, Graham RL, Scobey T, Ge XY, Donaldson EF, Randell SH, Lanzavecchia A, Marasco WA, Shi ZL, Baric RS. A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence. Nat Med. 2015 Dec;21(12):1508-13. doi: 10.1038/nm.3985. Epub 2015 Nov 9. Erratum in: Nat Med. 2016 Apr;22(4):446. Erratum in: Nat Med. 2020 Jul;26(7):1146. PMID: 26552008; PMCID: PMC4797993.
Mahroum N, Seida I, Esirgün SN, Bragazzi NL. The COVID-19 pandemic - How many times were we warned before? Eur J Intern Med. 2022 Jul 18:S0953-6205(22)00258-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ejim.2022.07.009. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 35864073; PMCID: PMC9289047.
Fan Y, Zhao K, Shi ZL, Zhou P. Bat coronaviruses in China. Viruses, 11.3. 2019: 210.
Price M. Some scientists publish more than 70 papers a year. Here's how—and why—they do it. Science. 2018. https://www.science.org/content/article/some-scientists-publish-more-70-paper s-year-here-s-how-and-why-they-do-it.
Higgins JW, Begoray D. Exploring the Borderlands between Media and Health: Conceptualizing" Critical Media Health Literacy". Journal of Media Literacy Education. 2012. 4(2): 136-148.
Andrus, MR, Roth, MT. Health literacy: a review. Pharmacotherapy: The Journal of Human Pharmacology and Drug Therapy. 2002. 22(3): 282-302.
Casigliani V, Arzilli G, Menicagli D, Scardina G, Lopalco PL. Vaccine hesitancy and Health Literacy: we need to change our paradigm, European Journal of Public Health, Volume 30, Issue Supplement_5, September 2020, ckaa165.032, https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.032.
Magon A, Arrigoni C, Graffigna G, Barello S, Moia M, Palareti G, Caruso R. The effect of health literacy on vaccine hesitancy among Italian anticoagulated population during COVID-19 pandemic: the moderating role of health engagement. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2021 Dec 2;17(12):5007-5012. doi: 10.1080/21645515.2021.1984123.
Montagni I, Ouazzani-Touhami K, Mebarki A, Texier N, Schück S, Tzourio C, Confins Group. Acceptance of a Covid-19 vaccine is associated with ability to detect fake news and health literacy. Journal of Public Health. 2021. 43(4), 695-702.
0lshansky SJ, Carnes BA, Rogers RG, Smith L. Emerging infectious diseases: the Fifth stage of the epidemiologic transition? https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/333141/WHSQ-1998-51-n2-3-4-p207-217-eng.pdf [dostęp: 20.07.2022].
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Jacek Pruszyński, Dorota Cianciara, Justyna Grudziąż-Sękowska, Inga Włodarczyk-Pruszyńska, Bartosz Kobuszewski, Wojciech Zgliczyński, Irena Pruszyńska
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
The periodical offers access to content in the Open Access system under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0
Stats
Number of views and downloads: 561
Number of citations: 0
