Russian Performance in Ukraine in 2022 in the Light of Francis Fukuyama’s Concept of “Defensive Modernization”

Abstract

The idea of “defensive modernization” (i.e., a specific kind of states’ adaptation to environmental changes), proposed by Francis Fukuyama, seems to offer an attractive explanatory tool about autocratic regimes’ level of performance. The author reviews the original theory by F. Fukuyama, and compares its premises to the data on the Russian Federation’s actions in Ukraine since February 24, 2022 – proposing that the low effectiveness of that military operation stems primarily from the shape of the Russian regime (i.e., is inherent to its non-liberal, autocratic character). The author also performs a critique of the concept of “defensive modernization” by raising the problem of the determinants of decision-making in autocratic systems – which oftentimes deprives the process of rationality, resulting in a high degree of prognostic difficulty.