Nigeria’s Demographic Policy and the Demographic Dividend: Opportunities and Risks

Abstract

The article analyses the importance of demographic factors for Nigeria’s position in the emerging international order. It argues that rapid population growth, combined with a slow decline in fertility, creates a “demographic window” that may become either a source of dividend or a driver of social crisis. The text examines demographic policies since the 1960s, differences between the country’s north and south in terms of culture, religion, and family planning, and the roles of education and international organisations. The economic analysis shows that if Nigeria wishes to benefit from its demographic window, it should move away from an oil-dependent model toward the digital and entertainment sectors (economic diversification). Nigeria has vast labour resources and people eager to improve their skills, which – with appropriate demographic policies and economic diversification – could transform it into a state of more than regional significance.