HYBRID WAR(FARE): THE CHALLENGE OF CONTAGION

Andriy Tyushka

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/TIS.2019.001

Abstract


Whereas scholarly accounts have mushroomed, especially since 2014, on what a ‘hybrid warfare’ is and is not, the phenomenon has taken a centerstage in international politics, thus confidently entering the everyday political vocabularies and practices in a growing number of states and societies worldwide. Drawing on the recent evidence of spatial and temporal diffusion of hybrid warfare theatres, this article argues that hybrid wars are highly contagious, thus prone to substantially challenge the international order, its normative and structural foundations. It therefore aims to explore the trends in the ideational spread and political uses of both hybrid warfare methods as well as the proliferating instances of hybrid wars fought across the globe. Finally, drawing on the empirical evidence and scholarly achievements in related fields of study, the article offers explanatory account of the mechanisms, conditions and dimension of hybrid war(fare) contagion. Among other featured cases, Russia’s hybrid war(fare) campaigns in Ukraine, Europe and further afield are employed as illustrative ‘archetypal’ cases.


Keywords


hybrid war; hybrid warfare; contagion; proliferation; Russia

Full Text:

PDF

References


AFP Kargil. (2014). Narendra Modi accuses Pakistan of waging proxy war in Kashmir. The Guardian, 12.08.2014. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/12/india-prime-minister-narendra-modi-pakistan-proxy-war-kashmir-kargil.

Alandete, D. (2017a). Russian network used Venezuelan accounts to deepen Catalan crisis. EL PAÍS, 11.11.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/11/inenglish/1510395422_468026.html.

Alandete, D. (2017b). Putin alienta la independencia con un enviado a Cataluña. EL PAÍS, 26.10.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://elpais.com/politica/2017/10/25/actualidad/1508958307_955473.html.

Applebaum, A., Pomerantsev, P., Smith, M., & Colliver, C. (2017). ‘Make Germany Great Again’: Kremlin, Alt-Right, and International Influences in the 2017 German Elections. London School of Economics Report, June 2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: http://www.lse.ac.uk/iga/assets/documents/arena/2017/Make-Germany-Great-Again-ENG-061217.pdf

Applebaum, A. (2019). Why the World should be Paying Attention to Putin’s Plans for Belarus. The Washington Post, 4.01.2019. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/why-the-world-should-be-paying-attention-to-putins-plans-for-belarus/2019/01/04/40c8d7cc-1043-11e9-831f-3aa2c2be4cbd_story.html.

Bechev, D. (2018). Understanding Russia’s Influence in the Western Balkans. Strategic Analysis, 9/2018 (September 2018). Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.hybridcoe.fi/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Strategic-Analysis-2018-9-Beshev-.pdf.

Bell, C. (2012). Hybrid Warfare and its Metaphors. Humanity Journal, 3(2), 225-247.

Bienkov, A. (2012). Astroturfing: what it is and why does it matter? The Guardian, 8.02.2012. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/feb/08/what-is-astroturfing.

Black, N. (2013). When have violent civil conflicts spread? Introducing a dataset of substate conflict contagion. Journal of Peace Research, 50(6), 751-759.

Blakely, R. (2018). Russian accounts fuel French outrage online. The Times, 8.12.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-accounts-fuel-protesters-outrage-online-xx2f2g8th.

Bonet, P. (2017). Russia uses Catalan referendum in fight against Brussels. EL PAÍS, 1.10.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/10/01/inenglish/1506863180_074507.html.

Braithwaite, A. (2010). Resisting infection: How state capacity conditions conflict contagion. Journal of Peace Research, 47(3), 311-319.

Broomfield, M. (2018). Brexit astroturfing: did fake grassroots groups help swing the EU referendum? New Statesman, 07.08.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2018/08/brexit-astroturfing-did-fake-grassroots-groups-help-swing-eu-referendum.

Brzeziński, Z. (2015). Zbigniew Brzeziński in „DGP”: Na Ukrainie się nie skończy. Musimy być gotowi do obrony (An Interwiew by Dominika Ćosić). Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, 25 March 2015. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: http://m.dziennik.pl/wiadomosci/opinie/zbigniew-brzezinski-w-dgp-na-ukrainie-sie-nie-skonczy-musimy-byc-gotowi-do-obrony.

Cohen, R.S., & Radin, A. (2019). Russia’s Hostile Measures in Europe: Understanding the Threat. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.

Cunningham, K. G., & Sawyer, K. (2017). Is Self-Determination Contagious? A Spatial Analysis of the Spread of Self-Determination Claims. International Organization, 71 (Summer 2017), 585-604.

Dalton, M. G. (2017). How Iran’s hybrid-war tactics help and hurt it. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 73(5), 312-315.

Davis, S. (2018). Russian Meddling in Elections and Referenda in the Alliance. NATO Parliamentary Assembly – Science and Technology Committee (STC) Report, adopted in Halifax, Canada, on 18 November 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.nato-pa.int/document/2018-russian-meddling-elections-and-referenda-alliance-davis-report-181-stc-18-e-fin.

Dearden, L. (2017). Emmanuel Macron Email Leaks ‘Linked to Russian-Backed Hackers Who Attacked Democratic National Committee’. The Independent, 6.05.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/emmanuel-macron-leaks-hack-en-marche-cyber-attack-russia-dnc-marine-le-pen-election-france-latest-a7721796.html

Deutsche Welle, News Editorial. (2018). Poland busts Russian “hybrid warfare” ring. Deutsche Welle, 17.05.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.dw.com/en/poland-busts-russian-hybrid-warfare-ring/a-43831566.

Dodds, P.S., & Watts, D.J. (2005). A generalized model of social and biological contagion. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 232(4), 587-604.

EFE Berlin. (2018). La inteligencia alemana afirma que Rusia apoyó al independentismo catalán. El Mundo, 14.05.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/05/14/5af97420468aeb13708b4657.html.

Emmott, R. (2017). Spain sees Russian interference in Catalonia separatist vote. Reuters, 13.11.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-spain-politics-catalonia-russia/spain-sees-russian-interference-in-catalonia-separatist-vote-idUSKBN1DD20Y.

Fox, A. C., & Rossow, A. J. (2017). Making Sense of Russian Hybrid Warfare: A Brief Assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The Land Warfare Papers, 112 (March 2017).

Frenkel, S., Conger, K. & Roose, K. (2019). Russia’s Playbook for Social Media Disinformation Has Gone Global. The New York Times, 31.01.2019. Retrieved January 31, 2019, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/31/technology/twitter-disinformation-united-states-russia.html.

Galeotti, M. (2018). (Mis)Understanding Russia’s two ‘Hybrid Wars’. Eurozine, 29.11.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.eurozine.com/misunderstanding-russias-two-hybrid-wars.

Gelfand, M., Shteynberg, G., Lee, T. (Eds.). (2012). The Cultural Contagion of Conflict. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 367, 692-703.

Higgins, A. (2016). Finger Pointed at Russians in Alleged Coup Plot in Montenegro. The New York Times, 26.11.2016. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/world/europe/finger-pointed-at-russians-in-alleged-coup-plot-in-montenegro.html.

Hill, S., & Rothchild, D. (1986). The Contagion of Political Conflict in Africa and the World. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 30(4), 716-735.

Hoffman, F. G. (2009). Hybrid Warfare and Challenges. Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), 52, 34-39.

Jensen, D. D., & Doran, P. B. (2018). Chaos as a Strategy: Putin’s ‘Promethean’ Gamble. Washington, DC: CEPA.

Johnson, R. (2018). Hybrid War and its Countermeasures: A Critique of the Literature. Small Wars and Insurgencies, 29(1), 141-163.

Kardopoltsev, M. (2019). Spetsy i spetsii: Zachem samolet Yevgeniya Prigozhina pochti kazhdyy mesyats letayet na Blizhniy Vostok i v Afriku. I chto ‘kremlevskiy povar’ gotovit v zonakh vooruzhennykh konfliktov? [Specialists and spices: Why does Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aircraft fly to the Middle East and Africa almost every month? And what does the ‘Kemlin’s cook’ cook in the zones of armed conflict?]. Novaya Gazeta, 4.02.2019. Retrieved February 4, 2019, from: https://www.novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/02/04/79417-spetsy-i-spetsii.

Khan, R. (2018). Why Pakistan is a theatre of hybrid war. The Express Tribune, 4.12.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1859504/6-pakistan-theatre-hybrid-war.

Kumar, N. (2017). War beyond Rules: Hybrid War and India’s Preparedness. CLAWS Journal, Summer 2017, 58-74.

Langley, D.J., Bijmolt, T.H.A., Ortt, J. R., & Pals, N. (2012). Determinants of social contagion during new product adoption. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 29(4), 623-638.

LeParisien. (2008). Kouchner accuse la Russie d'être „hors la loi internationale“ en Géorgie. LeParisien, 27.08.2008. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: http://www.leparisien.fr/flash-actualite-politique/kouchner-accuse-la-russie-d-etre-hors-la-loi-internationale-en-georgie-27-08-2008-176127.php

Linkevičius, L. (2018). How many wake-up calls do we really need to wake up? KyivPost, 5.12.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/linas-linkevicius-how-many-wake-up-calls-do-we-really-need-to-wake-up.html.

MacFarquhar, N. (2018). Russia-Ukraine Fight Over Narrow Sea Passage Risks Wider War. The New York Times, 26.11.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/26/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kerch-strait.html.

Maness, R., & Valeriano, B. (2012). Russia and the Near Abroad: Applying a Risk Barometer for War. The Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 25(2), 125-148.

Manners, I. (2002). Normative power Europe: a contradiction in terms? JCMS: Journal of common market studies, 40(2), 235-258.

Manners, I. (2013). Assessing the decennial, reassessing the global: Understanding European Union normative power in global politics. Cooperation and Conflict, 48(2), 304-329.

Mansoor, P. R. (2012). Introduction: Hybrid Warfare in History. In Williamson Murray and Peter R. Mansoor (eds.), Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present (pp.1-10). Cambridge: CUP.

Matlack, C. (2018). Pro-Russia Social Media Takes Aim at Macron as Yellow Vests Rage. Bloomberg, 8.12.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-08/pro-russia-social-media-takes-aim-at-macron-as-yellow-vests-rage.

McTague, T. (2018). Theresa May to EU Leaders: Russia Is a Threat to Us All. Politico, 21.03.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-eu-leaders-russia-threat.

Metternich, N.W., Minhas, S., & Ward, M.D. (2017). Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 61(6), 1151–1173.

NATO. (2014). Wales Summit Declaration. Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Wales, on 5 September 2014. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm.

Niruthan, N. (2016). How Hybrid Warfare Could Change Asia. The Diplomat, 25.06.2016. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://thediplomat.com/2016/06/how-hybrid-warfare-could-change-asia.

Orttung, R., & Walker, C. (2015). Putin’s Frozen Conflicts. Foreign Policy, 13.02.2015. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/02/13/putins-frozen-conflicts.

Ostanin, I., & Rose, E. (2016). Brexit: How Russian influence undermines Public Trust in Referendums. Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), 20.06.2016. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/5368-brexit-how-russian-influence-undermines-public-trust-in-referendums.

Palmer, E. (2017). Spain Catalonia: Did Russian ‘fake news’ stir things up? BBC News, 18.07.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-41981539.

Radin, A. (2017). Hybrid Warfare in the Baltics: Threats and Potential Responses. RAND Research Report, RR1577. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1577.html.

Ramani, S. (2019). Russia and the Taliban: Talking with Terrorists. The Diplomat, 12.01.2019. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/russia-and-the-taliban-talking-with-terrorists.

Rettman, A. (2018). Russia opens third front in war on Ukraine. EU Observer, 26.11.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://euobserver.com/foreign/143496.

Reuters. (2008). Russia says EU sanctions talk ‘sick’ and ‘confused’. Reuters, 28.08.2008. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-military/u-s-eyes-taiwan-risk-as-chinas-military-capabilities-grow-idUSKCN1P92TP.

Ricks, T. E. (2017). Hybrid war’s sword arm: The Russians have found good tactical innovations. Foreign Policy, 14.06.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/14/hybrid-wars-sword-arm-the-russians-have-found-good-tactical-innovations.

Roser, M. (2018). War and Peace – Our World in Data. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace.

Saad-Ghorayeb, A. (2009). The Hizbollah Project: last war, next war. openDemocracy, 13.08.2009. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.opendemocracy.net/article/the-hizbollah-project-last-war-next-war.

Sazonov, V. (2017). Afghanistan as an Example of the Kremlin’s Hybrid Warfare – Why Russia is Arming the Taliban. Diplomaatia, 166/167 (June 2017). Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://icds.ee/afghanistan-as-an-example-of-the-kremlins-hybrid-warfare-why-russia-is-arming-the-taliban.

Schroefl, J., & Kaufman, S. J. (2014). Hybrid Actors, Tactical Variety: Rethinking Asymmetric and Hybrid War. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 37(10), 862-880.

Schultz, T. (2017). Russia is hacking and harassing NATO soldiers, report says. Deutsche Welle, 6.10.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-is-hacking-and-harassing-nato-soldiers-report-says/a-40827197.

Simpson, B. (2014). Self-Determination in the Age of Putin. Foreign Policy, 21.03.2014. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/21/self-determination-in-the-age-of-putin.

Singer, P.W., & Brooking, E.T. (2018). LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company.

Snyder, T. (2018). The Road to Unfreedom: Russia, Europe, America. London: The Bodley Head.

Starr, H., & Most, B.A. (1985). The Forms and Processes of War Diffusion: Research Update on Contagion in African Conflict. Comparative Political Studies, 18(2), 206-227.

Sukhankin, S. (2019). Russian mercenaries on the march: Next stop Venezuela? European Council on Foreign Relations ‘Wider Europe Forum’, 1.2.2019. Retrieved February 1, 2019, from: https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_russian_mercenaries_on_the_march_next_stop_venezuela.

Thompson, N., & Bremmer, I. (2018). The AI Cold War that Threatens Us All. Wired, 23.10.2018. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://www.wired.com/story/ai-cold-war-china-could-doom-us-all.

Tucker, R. C. (1959). Russia, the West, and World Order. World Politics, 12(1), 1-23.

Tyushka, A. (2016). From a ‘Hybrid War’ to a ‘Hybrid Peace’? Implications of Russian Irregular Warfare in Ukraine for International Security. In: P. Batór and R. Ondrejcsák (eds.), Panorama of Global Security Environment 2015-2016 (pp.61-70). Bratislava: STRATPOL.

Tyushka, A. (2018). Russia Eyeing the West and the Rest: The Rule of Power in Russia’s Anti-Hegemonic Drive against the Power of Rules. Paper presented at the 59th ISA Annual Convention, San Francisco, 4-7 April 2018.

Tzu, S. (2003). Art of War. Translated by Ralph D. Sawyer. Philadelphia, PA: Running Press.

Vishwanath, A. (2015). Diffusion of Deception in Social Media: Social Contagion Effects and its antecedents. Information Systems Frontiers, 17(6), 1353-1367.

Way, L. (2009). Resistance to contagion. In V. Brunce, M. McFaul, and K. Stoner-Weiss (eds.), Democracy and Authoritarianism in the Post-Communist World (pp.229-252). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Wilson, A. (2017). Is Russia Practicing a Dry Run for an Invasion of Belarus? Foreign Policy, 18.09.2017. Retrieved January 27, 2019, from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/09/18/is-russia-practicing-a-dry-run-for-an-invasion-of-belarus.






___________________________

Creative Commons License
The journal offers access to the contents in the open access system on the principles of non-exclusive license Creative Commons (CC BY-ND 3.0).

(old ISSN: 1689-8168)

Declaration of the original version: the original version of the Torun International Studies is the electronic version.

Partnerzy platformy czasopism