RUSSIA'S PRESSURE ON NATO AND ITS RESPONSE DURING THE FULL-SCALE WAR IN UKRAINE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/TIS.2024.002Keywords
Russia, NATO, war in Ukraine, Euro-Atlantic security, neoclassical realismAbstract
The article concerns the pressure exerted by Russia on NATO during the full-scale war in Ukraine and the Alliance's response to this pressure. This issue is considered in the theoretical perspective of neoclassical realism, which is to explain the attitude of Russia and NATO. The article poses the following main questions: Why did Russia decide to implement a confrontational policy towards NATO and put so much pressure on it? Is the West effectively balancing the threat from Russia and what are the conditions for successfully and long-term countering its pressure? As a part of the research, interviews with American scientists and experts were conducted and strategic documents of the parties were analyzed. The article argues that domestic-level variables created an opportunity for the Kremlin to implement a confrontational policy towards NATO, but it misjudged the structural variables. NATO's ability to resist pressure from Russia effectively and over the long term will be determined by domestic-level variables of member states. The first section of the article includes embedding the analyzed issues in a theoretical framework and formulating research hypotheses. The second and third sections of the article cover, respectively, a discussion of Russia's pressure on NATO and of the Alliance's reaction to the pressure.
References
Behnke, A. (2013). Nato’s Security Discourse After the Cold War. Representing the West. Routledge.
Betts, R. K. (2022, April 28). Interview given to the author. Columbia University.
Biddle, S. (2022, May 5). Interview given to the author. Columbia University.
Biden, J. (2022, March 26). Twitt. https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1507782139315638283
Braun, A. (2008). Conclusion. In A. Braun (Ed.), NATO–Russia Relations in the Twenty-First Century (pp. 185-194). Routledge.
Brhliková, R. (2022). The need for new security architecture in Europe. Świat Idei i Polityki, 21(1), 133-150. https://doi.org/10.34767/SIIP.2022.01.07
Burns, W. J. (2019). The Back Channel: A Memoir of American Diplomacy and the Case for Its Renewal. Random House.
Chenoy, A. M., & Kumar, R. (2017). Re-emerging Russia. Structures, Institutions and Processes. Palgrave Macmillan.
Christensen, T. J. (1996). Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958. Princeton University Press.
Cohen, R. S. (2022, June 3). The Return of 'Don’t Poke the Bear'. https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/the-return-of-dont-poke-the-bear.html
Czaputowicz, J. (2012). Bezpieczeństwo międzynarodowe. Współczesne koncepcje. PWN.
Donaldson, R. H., Nogee, J. L., & Nadkarni, V. (2014). Changing Systems, Enduring Interests. Fifth edition. Routledge.
Doyle, M. (2022, April 27). Interview given to the author. Columbia University.
Duclos, M. (2021, July 2). Russia’s National Security Strategy 2021: the Era of "Information Confrontation". https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/russias-national-security-strategy-2021-era-information-confrontation
Fix, L., & Kimmage, M. (2022, March 4). What If Russia Loses? A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West. Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/what-if-russia-loses
George, J. (2022, May 23). Interview given to the author. Columbia University.
Goldgeier, J. (2022, May 26). Interview given to the author. American University.
Graham, T. (2022, June 30). NATO Countries Signal Resolve at Summit: What Does It Mean for Russia? https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/nato-countries-signal-resolve-summit-what-does-it-mean-russia
Huang, Y. (2022, July 7). The U.S. and EU Are Better Off Without Asia’s Support for Russia Energy Sanctions. https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/07/07/u.s.-and-eu-are-better-off-without-asia-s-support-for-russia-energy-sanctions-pub-87447
Johnson, D. (2022, June 28). What Better Way to Use the Arsenal of Democracy? https://www.rand.org/blog/2022/06/what-better-way-to-use-the-arsenal-of-democracy.html
Kitchen, V. M. (2010). The Globalization of NATO. Intervention, security and identity. Routledge.
Kleberg, Ch., & Black, J. (2023, April 4). Finland Joins NATO, Sweden's Accession Remains Uncertain. https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/04/finland-joins-nato-swedens-accession-remains-uncertain.html
Kriendler, J. (2013). NATO–Russia relations. Reset is not a four-letter word. In G. P. Herd, J. Kriendler (Eds.), Understanding NATO in the 21st Century. Alliance strategies, security and global governance (pp. 85-101). Routledge.
Kozub-Karkut, M. (2014). Realizm neoklasyczny - główne założenia i możliwości. In: E. Haliżak & J. Czaputowicz (Eds.), Teoria realizmu w stosunkach międzynarodowych. Założenia i zastosowania badawcze (pp. 43-53). Rambler.
Kudelia, S., & Kasianov, G. (2021). Ukraine’s Political Development after Independence. In M. Minakov, G.Kasianov & M. Rojansky (Eds.), From “the Ukraine” to Ukraine A Contemporary History, 1991-2021 (pp. 9-52). ibidem-Verlag.
Lagadec, E. (2012). Transatlantic Relations in the 21st Century Europe, America and the rise of the rest. Routledge.
Larsen, J. A. (2017). NATO’s responses to Russian belligerence: an overview. In K. Friis (Ed.), NATO and Collective Defence in the 21st Century. An Assessment of the Warsaw Summit (pp. 8-15). Routledge.
Leichtova, M. (2016). Misunderstanding Russia. Russian Foreign Policy and the West. Routledge.
Locoman, E. (2022, June 7). What’s Next for Ukraine’s (and its Neighbors’) Domestic and Foreign Policy? https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/06/whats-next-for-ukraines-and-its-neighbors-domestic-and-foreign-policy/
Masuhr, N., & Zogg, B. (2022). The War in Ukraine: First Lessons. CSS Analyses in Security Policy.https://www.research-collection.ethz.ch/bitstream/handle/20.500.11850/540121/CSSAnalyse301-EN.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y
Monaghan, A. (2008). ‘An enemy at the gates’ or ‘from victory to victory’? Russian foreign policy. International Affairs, 84(4), 717-733. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2008.00734.x
Morcos, P. (2022, May 11). Interview given to the author. Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Morgan, K. (2022, May 5). Interview given to the author. George Washington University.
NATO (2022a, March 24). Statement by NATO Heads of State and Government. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_193719.htm?selectedLocale=en
NATO (2022b, June 29). NATO 2022 Strategic Concept. https://www.nato.int/strategic-concept/
NATO (2023, July 11). Vilnius Summit Communiqué Issued by NATO Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Vilnius 11 July 2023. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_217320.htm
Neumann, I. B. (2017). Russia and the idea of Europe. A study in identity and international relations. Second edition. Routledge.
Polyakova, A., Lucas, E., Lo, B., Lamond, J., & Speranza, L. (2022, May 24). What Does Europe Look Like 3-7 Years After Russia’s War in Ukraine? https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/what-does-europe-look-like-3-7-years-after-russias-war-in-ukraine/
Ponsard, L. (2007). Russia, NATO and Cooperative Security. Bridging the gap. Routledge.
Prezidenta Rossiyskoy Federatsii. (2021, July 2). Strategii natsional'noy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii. http://actual.pravo.gov.ru/text.html#pnum=0001202107030001
Pszczel, R. (2022, July 7). The consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for international security – NATO and beyond. NATO Review. https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/07/07/the-consequences-of-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-for-international-security-nato-and-beyond/index.html
Putin, V. (2007, February 10). Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/copy/24034
Reczkowski, R. (2020). Geopolitical Gameplay with COVID-19 Pandemic: Russian Ecosystem of Disinformation and Propaganda. Świat Idei i Polityki 19. 243-256. https://doi.org/10.15804/siip202012
Roberts, C. (2022, May 13). Interview given to the author. Columbia University.
Rose, G. (1998). Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics 51(1), 144-172. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25054068
Rukavishnikov, V. (2016). Understanding Putin’s Foreign and Security Policy: Lessons from the Russian Transition. In R. E. Kanet & R. Piet (Eds.), Shifting Priorities in Russia’s Foreign and Security Policy (pp. 35-50). Routledge.
Rutland, P. (2009). US energy policy and the former Soviet Union: parallel tracks. In R. W. Orttung & A. Wenger (Eds.), Russian Energy Power and Foreign Relations. Implications for conflict and cooperation (pp. 181-200). Routledge.
Schweller, R. L. (2004). Unanswered Threats. A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing. International Security 29(2), 159–201. https://doi.org/10.1162/0162288042879913
Snetkov, A. (2015). Russia’s Security Policy under Putin. A critical perspective. Routledge.
Sperling, J. (2016). Neo-classical realism and alliance politics. In M. Webber & A. Hyde-Price (Eds.), Theorising NATO. New perspectives on the Atlantic alliance (pp. 61-92), Routledge.
Sterling-Folker, J. (1997). Realist Environment, Liberal Process and Domestic-Level Variables. International Studies Quarterly, 41(1), 1-25. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2600905
Troyakova, T. (2018). Primorskii Krai and Russia’s ‘Turn to the East’: A Regional View. In H. Blakkisrud & E. Wilson Rowe (Eds.), Russia’s Turn to the East Domestic Policymaking and Regional Cooperation (pp. 31-50). Palgrave Macmillan.
Walt, S. (1985). Alliance Formation and the Balance of World Power. International Security, 9(4), 3-43. https://doi.org/10.2307/2538540
Wither, J.K. (2020). Back to the future? Nordic total defence concepts. Defence Studies, 20(1), 61-81. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702436.2020.1718498
Wohlforth, W.C. (2009). Unipolarity, Status Competition, and Great Power War. World Politics 61(1), 28-57. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0043887109000021
Youngs, R. (2022, July 28). The Awakening of Geopolitical Europe? https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/07/28/awakening-of-geopolitical-europe-pub-87580
Zakaria, F. (1998). From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of Americas World Role. Princeton University Press.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Łukasz Jureńczyk
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Stats
Number of views and downloads: 189
Number of citations: 0