Synchronization of the business and financial cycle in Poland
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2025.07Keywords
business cycle, financial cycle, financializationAbstract
Motivation: Nowadays, financial factors increasingly determine the functioning of the real sector. The assessment of the synchronization and interdependence of fluctuations in business and financial activity can be a kind of criterion for assessing the balance between the real and financial spheres.
Aim: The aim of the research is to assess the degree of synchronization of the business and finan-cial cycle in Poland and the changes in the degree of this synchronization over time.
Results: In the adopted research period, financial cyclical fluctuations of the dynamics of the stock market index and credit for the non-financial private sector did not clearly and unequivocal-ly determine cyclical fluctuations of the GDP growth rate in Poland. However, this does not mean that financial cycles in Poland are not related to the business cycle. The research re-sults indicate clear symptoms of dependence upon cyclical changes in the financial sphere and real economic activity. The degree of synchronization of the business and financial cycle in Poland is also variable over time.
References
Adarov, A. (2020). Financial cycles around the world. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(3), 3163-3201. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2316.
Ahmed, J., Chaudhry, S. M. & Straetmans, S. (2018). Business and financial cycles in the Eurozone: Synchronization or decoupling. The Manchester School, 86(3), 358-389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/manc.12188.
Aldasoro, I., Avdjiev, S., Borio, C. & Disyatat, P. (2020). Global and domestic fi-nancial cycles: variations on a theme. BIS Working Papers, 864.
Ardila, D. & Sornette, D. (2016). Dating the Financial Cycle: A Wavelet Proposi-tion. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper, 16-29, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2775271.
Bonis, R.D. & Silvestrini, A. (2013). The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011. Clio-metrica, 8(3), 301-334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-013-0103-5.
Borio, C. (2014). The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt? Journal of Banking & Finance, 45, 182-198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.031.
Bry, G. & Boschan, C. (1971). Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs. New York: NBER.
Burns, A.F. & Mitchell, W.C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. New York: NBER.
Calvo G., Izquierdo, A. & Talvi, E. (2006). Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering Without Credit from Systemic Financial Crisis, BIS Working Pa-pers, no. 221.
Cerutti, E.. Claessens, S., & Rose, A.K. (2017). How Important is the Global Finan-cial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows. NBER Working Papers, 23699.
Chmiel, J. & Pitera, R. (2021). Proces finansjalizacji a problemy finansowe przed-siębiorstw w krajach Grupy Wyszehradzkiej. Nierówności Społeczne a Wzrost Gospodarczy, 68, 161-173. http://dx.doi.org/10.15584/nsawg.2021.4.9.
Christiano, L. & Fitzgerald, T. J. (2003). The band-pass filter. International Eco-nomic Review, 44(2), 435–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00076.
Claessens, S., Ayhan Kose, M. & Terrones, M.E. (2009). What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? Economic Policy, 24(60), 653-700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0327.2009.00231.x.
Claessens, S., Kose, M.A. & Terrones, M.E. (2012). How do business and financial cycles interact? Journal of International Economics, 87(1), 178-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.11.008.
Drehmann, M., Borio, C. E., & Tsatsaronis, K. (2012). Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term! BIS Working Papers, no. 380.
Drozdowicz-Bieć, M. (2009). Kryzysy finansowe i cykle koniunktury. In J. Gar-czarczyk (Eds.). Rynek usług finansowych a koniunktura gospodarcza (pp. 17-31). Warszawa: CeDeWu.
Epstein, G. (2005). Introduction: Financialization and the World Economy. In G. Epstein (Eds.). Financialization and the World Economy (pp. 3-16). Chelten-ham and Northampton: Edward Elgar.
Gammadigbe, V. (2022). Financial cycles synchronization in WAEMU countries: Implications for macroprudential policy. Finance Research Letters, 46, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102281.
Gołębiowski, G. & Szczepankowski, P. (2015). Finansyzacja gospodarki krajów Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej. Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Soc-jologiczny, 77(4), 197-215. https://doi.org/10.14746/rpeis.2015.77.4.16.
Gomez, V. & Maravall, A. (2001). Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series. In D. Pena, G.C. Tiao & R.S. Tsay (Eds.). A course in Time Series Analysis (pp. 202–246). J. Wiley and Sons.
Gostomski, E. (2014). Finansyzacja w gospodarce światowej. International Busi-ness and Global Economy, 33, 299-311. http://dx.doi.org/10.4467/23539496IB.13.021.2406.
Ha, J., Kose, M. A., Otrok, C., & Prasad, E. S. (2020). Global macro-financial cycles and spillovers. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-79, https://doi.org//10.3386/w26798.
Hiebert, P., Klaus, B., Peltonen, T., Schüler, Y.S., & Welz, P. (2014). Capturing the Financial Cycle in Euro Area Countries. Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 2.
Ho, G., Lu, Y. (2013). A Financial Conditions Index for Poland. IMF Working Paper, 13(252). http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475540642.001.
Jordà, Ò., Schularick, M., Taylor, A. M., & Ward, F. (2019). Global financial cycles and risk premiums. IMF Economic Review, 67(1), 109-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41308-019-00077-1.
Krippner, G. (2005). The financialization of the American economy. Socio-Economic Review, 3(2), 173–208. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/SER/mwi008.
Kunovac, D., Mandler, M., & Scharnagl, M. (2018). Financial cycles in euro area economies: A cross-country perspective. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, No. 04/2018, 1-36. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3151336.
Lv, S., Xu, Z., Fan, X., Qin, Y., & Skare, M. (2023). The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide. Equilib-rium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 18(1), 11–47. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2023.001.
Markowski, Ł., & Ostrowska, A. Synchronizacja cyklu gospodarczego i finansowego w krajach Unii Europejskiej. Ekonomista, 2, 178–208. https://doi.org/10.52335/ekon/188078.
Marszałek, P. Finansyzacja w Polsce – ciekawostka teoretyczna czy realny prob-lem? Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 306, 235-246.
Minsky, H. P. (1978). The financial instability hypothesis: A restatement. Hyman P. Minsky archive. Paper 180.
Monnet, E., & Puy, M. D. (2016). Has globalization really increased business cycle synchronization? IMF Working Papers, 16(54), http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513564890.001.
Moszyński, M. (2009). Jakość Informacji na rynku finansowym w kontekście kryzysu finansowego. Ekonomia i Prawo, 5(1), 43-58. https://doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2009.003.
Ng, T. (2011). The predictive content of financial cycle measures for output fluc-tuations. BIS Quarterly Review, June, 53-65.
Oman, W. (2019). The Synchronization of business cycles and financial cycles in the euro area. International Journal of Central Banking, 15(1), 327–362.
Pipień, M. & Tymoczko, D. (2024). Does the credit cycle exist? Policy recommen-dations based on empirical analyses of the Polish banking sector. Bank i Kredyt, 55(1), 1-20.
Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020). The Length of Financial Cycle and its Impact on Busi-ness Cycle in Poland. European Research Studies Journal. Vol. XXIII, Iss. 4, 1278-1290.
Porada-Rochoń, M. & Škare, M. (2020). Generalized financial cycle theory from the Minsky's Perspective: UK 1270-2016. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(5), 1375-1389. https://doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2020.12878.
Ratajczak, M. (2014). Finansyzacja gospodarki. Ekonomista, 3, 281-302.
Qin, Y., Wang, X., Xu, Z., Skare, M. & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2021). Financial Cycles in the Economy and Finance: A Case Study in China. Technological and Eco-nomic Development of Economy, 27(5), 1250-1279. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2021.15439.
Roncaglia, A. (2022). The Myth of Money as a Veil. In A. Arnon, M. C. Marcuzzo & A. Rosselli (Eds.). Financial Markets in Perspective. Lessons from Economic History and History of Economic Thought (pp. 3-16). Springer: Switzerland. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86753-9_1.
Rünstler, G. & Vlekke, M. (2018). Business, housing, and credit cycles. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 33(2), 212-226. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jae.2604.
Rydzewska, A. (2023). Influence of financialization on the business activity of non-financial enterprises in Poland. Ekonomia i Prawo, 22(4), 777-807. https://doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2023.041.
Samarina, A., Zhang, L. & Bezemer, D. (2017). Credit cycle coherence in the euro-zone: Was there a euro effect? Journal of International Money and Fi-nance, 77, 77-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.07.002.
Škare, M. & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2019). Tracking financial cycles in ten transi-tional economies 2005–2018 using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) tech-niques. Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, 14(1), 7–29. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2019.001.
Škare, M. & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020a). Forecasting financial cycles: can big data help? Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 26(5), 974-988. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12702.
Škare, M. & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020b). The Synchronisation Between Financial and Business Cycles: A Cross Spectral Analysis View. Technological and Eco-nomic Development of Economy, 26(4), 907-919. https://doi.org/10.3846/tede.2020.12567.
Škare, M. & Porada-Rochoń, M. (2020c). Multi-channel Singular-Spectrum Analy-sis (MSSA) of financial cycles in ten developed economies 1970-2018. Journal of Business Research, 112, 567-575. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2019.10.047.
Socha, B. & Urban D. Przejawy finansyzacji polskich spółek giełdowych w opinii menedżerów. Wyniki badań własnych. Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, sectio H – Oeconomia, 53(4), 141-152. http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2019.53.4.141-152.
Strohsal, T., Proano, C.R. & Wolters, J. (2018). Assessing the cross-country inter-action of financial cycles: evidence from a multivariate spectral analysis of the USA and the U.K. Empirical Economics, 57(2), 385-398. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018- 1471-2.
Szunke, A. (2014). The role of financialization in banking sector instability. Jour-nal of Ecconomics & Management, 16, 97-111.
Trotta Vianna, M. (2023). Business cycle theories after Keynes: A brief review considering the notions of equilibrium and instability. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 64, 134–143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.12.004.
Tsalas, A., & Monokroussos, P. (2018). PIIGS in and out of sync: The changing face of financial business cycle synchronization in Europe. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 2(1), 261-278, https://doi.org/ 10.3934/QFE.2018.1.261.
Whalen, Ch. (2008). Understanding the Credit Crunch as a Minsky Moment. Challenge, 51(1), 91-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.2753/0577-5132510106.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Łukasz Markowski
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Stats
Number of views and downloads: 2
Number of citations: 0
