The spatial pattern of selected extreme precipitation indices for Turkey (1975-2012)

Abstract

This paper analyses extreme precipitation characteristic of Turkey based on selected WMO climate change indices. (Rdays), (Rx1day), (SDII) and (R10) were calculated for 98 stations for 38 year overlapping period (1975-2012). Cluster analysis was applied to evaluate spatial characterisation of the annual precipitation extremes. Four extreme precipitation clusters were detected. Cluster 1 corresponds spatially to Central and Eastern Anatolia and identified with lowest index values except rainy days. Cluster 2 is concentrated mainly west and south part of the Anatolia, especially coastal zone and can be characterised with lowest rainy days and high and moderate values in other indices. These two clusters are the most prominent classes throughout the country with totally 82 stations. Cluster 3 is clearly located in the Black Sea coastal zone on the north with high and moderate index values. Two stations located on the northeast coast of the Black Sea region are identified as Cluster 4 which exhibits the highest values among all indices. The overall results reveal that winter months and October have the highest proportion of precipitation extremes in Turkey. Northeast part of the Black Sea region and Mediterranean coastal area from southwest to southeast are prone to experiencing frequent extreme precipitation events.