The future of Iranian social housing: a regional governance challenge
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/bgss-2024-0030Keywords
geography, planning & development, social housing & housing policy, Iran, MICMAC analysis, Delphi methodAbstract
Housing is a fundamental human necessity, shaping health, security and socio-economic well-being. The government of Iran has implemented various policies, plans and projects to ensure housing provision, but significant challenges remain, particularly in social housing. This study aims to identify and analyse the obstacles affecting the future development of social housing in Iran. Utilising a mixed-method approach, we conducted both quantitative and qualitative research, gathering expert insights through the Delphi method and analysing the data using cross-impact analysis via MICMAC software. The results revealed four critical challenges: limited loan repayment ability, currency instability, social issues within low-income communities, and policy isolation. These findings underscore the need for policymakers to adopt a comprehensive strategy that addresses financial, social and political fragmentation to ensure sustainable and equitable access to social housing for low-income residents.
References
Aalbers, M. (2016). Financialization of housing. Taylor & Francis. Routledge.
Achamwie, P.K. & Danso-Wiredu, E.Y. (2021). The rental system in Ghana’s low-income housing communities, challenges and adaptation strategies. Town and Regional Planning, 79: 67-78. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18820/2415-0495/trp79i1.8.
Adeoye, D.O. (2016). Challenges of Urban Housing Quality: Insights and Experiences of Akure, Nigeria. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 216: 260-268. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.12.036.
Afrane, A., Bujang, A.A., Liman, H.S. & Kasim, I. (2016). Major factors causing housing deficit in Ghana. Developing Country Studies, 6(2): 139-147.Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/2292/63662.
Al Mulhim, K.A.M., Swapan, M.S.H. & Khan, S. (2022). Critical junctures in sustainable social housing policy development in Saudi Arabia: a review. Sustainability, 14(5): 2979. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14052979.
Allan, A., Soltani, A., Abdi, M.H. & Zarei, M. (2022). Driving forces behind land use and land cover change: A systematic and bibliometric review. Land, 11(8): 1222.
Amirahmadi, H. (2019). Housing policy in Iran: Challenges and opportunities. Journal of Urban Planning, 22(1): 45-67.
Amirjani, R. (2020). Shushtar New Town: A Turning Point in Iranian Social Housing History (PhD Thesis). University of Canberra).
Amnesty International. (2019). Housing is a Human Right: Iran Report. Retrieved from Archive of the Cabinet Office (2015).
Ampofo, A.J. (2020). Constraints factors to maintenance of government senior high school buildings in Wa Municipal. International Journal of Management & Entrepreneurship Research, 2(3): 139-160.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.51594/ijmer.v2i3.147.
Asiniwasis, R., Merati, N., Roesler, J., Simpson, E.L., Aubry, R., McMullen, E., Fraess, L., Choi, U.Y., Hinther, K., Chu, D.K. & Jack, C. (2024). The Social and Home Environment: Impacts of Determinants of Health on Atopic Dermatitis, Pathways Toward Solutions, and Unique Considerations for Rural and Remote North American Indigenous Populations. The Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice, 12(2), 290-299. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaip.2023.11.034.
Average, C. (2019). Low income housing problems and low-income housing solutions: opportunities and challenges in Bulawayo. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 34: 927-938. Available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10901-019-09676-w.
Azizi, P., Soltani, A., Bagheri, F., Sharifi, S. & Mikaeili, M. (2022). An integrated modelling approach to urban growth and land use/cover change. Land, 11(10): 1715.
Azkia, M. & Saeedi, M. (2022). Urbanization and socio-economic divides in Iranian cities. Social Science Quarterly, 33(4): 78-92.
Bagheri, B., Azadi, H., Soltani, A. & Witlox, F. (2024). Global city data analysis using SciMAT: A bibliometric review. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(6): 15403-15427.
Bagheri, B. & Soltani, A. (2023). The spatio-temporal dynamics of urban growth and population in metropolitan regions of Iran. Habitat International, 136: 102797. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2023.102797.
Bratt, R.G. (2019). The role of nonprofits in meeting the housing challenge in the United States. Urban Research & Practice, 12(1): 7-37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17535069.2017.1341951.
Central Bank of Iran. (2020). Annual Report on Exchange Rates and Inflation.
Cerón-Palma, I., Sanyé-Mengual, E., Oliver-Solà, J., Montero, J.I., Ponce-Caballero, C. & Rieradevall, J. (2013). Towards a green sustainable strategy for social neighbourhoods in Latin America: Case from social housing in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. Habitat international, 38: 47-56. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2012.09.008.
Clapham, D. (2018). Housing theory, housing research and housing policy. Housing, Theory and Society, 35(2), 163-177. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2017.1366937.
Cloke, P. & Milbourne, P. (2006). Knowing homelessness in rural England. In: P. Milbourne & P. Cloke, P. (eds.). International Perspectives on Rural Homelessness. Routledge.
Cobbinah, P.B. & Niminga-Beka, R. (2017). Urbanisation in Ghana: Residential land use under siege in Kumasi central. Cities, 60, Part A: 388-401. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.10.011.
Dalkey, N. & Helmer, O. (1963). An experimental application of the Delphi method to the use of experts. Management science, 9(3): 458-467.
Debele, E.T. (2019). Urban housing politics: Dynamics, challenges and coping mechanisms of urban housing problems in Sebeta Town. Journal of Human Resource Management, 7(4): 93-98. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.jhrm.20190704.13.
Delphi, L. (1968). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group process. Management Science, 15(10): B294-B303.
DTZ Consulting & Research. (2006). Housing, Economic Development And Productivity: Literature Review, A Report by DTZ CONSULTING & RESEARCH. Greyfriars Gate, England.
Ebekozien, A. (2020). Community participation in affordable housing provision in developing cities: A study of Nigerian cities. Journal of Human Behavior in the Social Environment, 30(7): 918-935. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10911359.2020.1772164.
Ehsani, K. (2022). Economic policies and housing affordability in Iran. Economic Review, 18(3): 101-119. Available at: http://qjerp.ir/article-1-2093-en.html.
Ehsani, M. (2022). Financial Stability and Housing Market Fluctuations in Iran.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. (2018). Regional economic prospects in the EBRD regions: In the shadow of trade conflicts, sustained growth amidst tighter financing conditions. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Fiori, J. (2014). Housing policy in Brazil: The social challenge of urbanization. Habitat International, 43: 157-165.
Gallent, N. & Robinson, S. (2011). Local perspectives on rural housing affordability and implications for the localism agenda in England. Journal of Rural Studies, 27: 297-307. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2011.05.004.
Ghaedrahmati, S. & Zarghamfard, M. (2021). Housing policy and demographic changes: the case of Iran. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 14(1): 1-13. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-06-2019-0064.
Ghaedrahmati, S. & Zarghamfard, M. (2020). Housing policy and demographic changes: the case of Iran. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 14(1): 1–13.
Ghaffari, N. (2017). Policy monitoring and housing initiatives in Iran. Public Administration Journal, 30(2): 55-72.
Ghazi, A. (2020). Housing Affordability in Tehran: A Socioeconomic Analysis.
Gilbert, A. (2014). Free housing for the poor: An effective way to address poverty? Habitat International, 41: 253-261.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2013.08.009.
Habibi, M. & Saeidi Rezvani, N. (2015). Displacement and social instability in urban Iran. Urban Studies, 27(3): 123-140.
Harvey, D. (2008). The Right to the City. New Left Review, 53(1): 23-40.
Hochstenbach, C. (2016). State-led gentrification and the changing geography of market-oriented housing policies. Housing, Theory and Society, 34(4): 399–419. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2016.1271825.
Hooghe, L. & Marks, G. (2001). Multi-level Governance and European Integration. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers.
Howden-Chapman, P., Bennett, J., Edwards, R., Jacobs, D., Nathan, K. & Ormandy, D. (2023). Review of the impact of housing quality on inequalities in health and well-being. Annual Review of Public Health, 44: 233-254. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071521-111836.
Huchzermeyer, M. (2011). Cities with 'Slums': From Informal Settlement Eradication to a Right to the City in Africa. University of Cape Town Press.
International Monetary Fund. (2019). Exchange rate volatility and housing markets. International Monetary Fund.
Kellett, R., Christen, A., Coops, N.C., van der Laan, M., Crawford, B., Tooke, T.R. & Olchovski, I. (2013). A systems approach to carbon cycling and emissions modeling at an urban neighborhood scale. Landscape and Urban Planning, 110: 48-58. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2012.10.002.
Khatami, A. (2019). Financial challenges in Iranian housing provision. Housing Economics Review, 14(2): 98-110.
Kimhur, B. (2020). How to apply the capability approach to housing policy? Concepts, theories, and challenges. Housing, Theory and Society, 37(3), 257-277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2019.1706630.
King, P. (2005). A social philosophy of housing. Habitat International, 29: 605-613. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/2086/683.
Kraatz, J.A., Mitchell, J., Matan, A. & Newman, P. (2015). Rethinking social housing: Efficient, effective, and equitable. Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre Research Report, 75.
Lancet, T. (2017). Urbanisation, inequality, and health in Asia and the Pacific. Lancet (London, England), 389(10077): 1370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30941-8.
Lefebvre, H. (1967). Le droit à la ville (The Right to the City - in French). Paris: Anthropos.
Leijten, I. & de Bel, K. (2020). Facing financialization in the housing sector: A human right to adequate housing for all. Netherlands Quarterly of Human Rights, 38(2): 94-114. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0924051920923855.
Lévy-Vroelant, C., Reinprecht, C., Robertson, D. & Wassenberg, F. (2014). Learning from history: Path dependency and change in the social housing sectors of Austria, France, the Netherlands, and Scotland, 1889–2013. Social Housing in Europe, 277-294.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118412367.ch16.
Lin, Y., De Meulder, B., Cai, X., Hu, H. & Lai, Y. (2014). Linking social housing provision for rural migrants with the redevelopment of ‘villages in the city’: A case study of Beijing. Cities, 40: 111-119. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2014.03.011.
Lund, B. (2011). Understanding housing policy (2nd ed.). The Policy Press.
Madani, R. (2020). Community interaction and housing issues in Iran. Journal of Social Policy, 29(1): 67-81.
Mahadevia, D. (2011). Branded and Renewed? Policies, Politics and Processes of Urban Development in the Reform Era. Economic and Political Weekly, 46(31): 64-75.
Makinde, O.O. (2014). Housing delivery system, need and demand. Environment, development and sustainability, 16: 49-69. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-013-9474-9.
Malpass, P. (2008). Housing and the new welfare state: Wobbly pillar or cornerstone? Housing Studies, 23(1): 1–19. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02673030701731100.
Marais, L. (2013). The effectiveness of housing policies in developing countries: Evidence from South Africa. Housing Studies, 28(3): 457-478.
Marsh, A. & Gibb, K. (2011). Uncertainty, expectations, and behavioural aspects of housing market choices. Housing, Theory and Society, 28(3): 215–235. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14036096.2011.599182.
Mashayekhi, A. (2018). The 1968 Tehran master plan and the politics of planning development in Iran (1945–1979). Planning Perspectives, 34(5): 849–876.
Mhlongo, N.Z.D., Gumbo, T. & Musonda, I. (2022). Inefficiencies in the delivery of low-income housing in South Africa: Is governance the missing link? A review of literature. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1101(5): 052004.
Mhlongo, N.Z.D., Gumbo, T., Musonda, I. & Moyo, T.J. (2024). Sustainable low-income housing: Exploring housing and governance issues in the Gauteng City Region, South Africa. Urban Governance.
Miller, J.D. & Hutchins, M. (2017). The impacts of urbanisation and climate change on urban flooding and urban water quality: A review of the evidence concerning the United Kingdom. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 12: 345-362. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.06.006.
Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, Iran. (2017). Social Housing Plan Document.
Ministry of Roads and Urban Development. (2017). Comprehensive Housing Plan (2017-2022): Understanding the current situation, future outlook, strategic and executive document.
Miraftab, F. (2009). Insurgent planning: Situating radical planning in the global south. Planning Theory, 8(1): 32-50. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781119084679.ch24.
Mitchell, D. (2003). The right to the city: Socialjustice and the fight for public space. Guilfordpress.
Mitlin, D. & Mogaladi, J. (2013). Social movements and the struggle for shelter: A case study of eThekwini (Durban). Progress in Planning, 84: 1-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.progress.2012.12.001.
Moghadam, A.S., Soltani, A. & Parolin, B. (2018a). Transforming and changing urban centres: The experience of Sydney from 1981 to 2006. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 11(1): 37–53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-017-0197-7.
Moghadam, A.S., Soltani, A., Parolin, B. & Alidadi, M. (2018b). Analysing the space-time dynamics of urban structure change using employment density and distribution data. Cities, 81: 203–213. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2018.04.009.
Moghayedi, A., Phiri, C. & Ellmann, A.M. (2023).Improving sustainability of affordable housing using innovative technologies: Case study of SIAH-Livable. Scientific African, 21: e01819. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2023.e01819.
Mohammadi, H. (2016). Housing infrastructure in urban Iran: A critical analysis. Urban Infrastructure Journal, 19(4): 88-103.
Ngcobo, N. (2018). The impact of rural housing policy on the socio-economic status of households: a case study of Vulindlela rural housing project context (PhD Thesis).
Nouri, M.S. & Boujelbene, Y. (2022). Determinants of the export performance of Tunisian SMEs: Analysis through the MICMAC method. South Asian Research Journal of Business and Management, 4(1): 1-10.
OECD. (2020). Financial Support Mechanisms for Housing.
OECD. (2020). Housing Policy Toolkit. Retrieved from.
Omran, A., Khorish, M. & Saleh, M. (2014). Structural analysis with knowledge-based MICMAC approach. International Journal of Computer Applications, 86(5).
Peppercorn, I. & Taffin, C. (2009). Social housing in the USA and France: Lessons from convergences and divergences. Urban Planning International, 3(1): 25-30.
Pons, A. & Rullan, O. (2014). The expansion of urbanisation in the Balearic Islands (1956–2006). Journal of Marine and Island Cultures, 3(2): 78-88. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imic.2014.11.004.
Population and Housing Census, Iran Statistical Center. (2023). Available at: https://www.amar.org.ir/statistical-information.
Prentice, D. & Scutella, R. (2020). What are the impacts of living in social housing? New evidence from Australia. Housing Studies, 35(4): 612-647. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02673037.2019.1621995.
Qadikolaei, M.R., Zali, N. & Soltani, A. (2024). Spatiotemporal investigation of the digital divide, the case study of Iranian Provinces. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(1): 869-884.
Rangwala, S.C. (1998). Town planning. Charatar Publishing House.
Ronald, R. & Lee, H. (2012). Housing policy socialization and decommodification in South Korea. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 27(2): 111–131. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10901-011-9257-2.
Saadi, M. (2023). Sustainable urban development and housing foresight in Iran. Journal of Sustainable Development, 35(2): 145-162.
Sadeghi, S., Mohammadi, A. & Naderi, M. (2021). Economic disparities and housing provision. Economic Policy Journal, 23(5): 112-128.
Saldaña-Márquez, H., Gómez-Soberón, J.M., Arredondo-Rea, S.P., Gámez-García, D. Saldaña-Márquez, H.,Gómez-Soberón, J.M.,Arredondo-Rea, S.P.,Gámez-García, D.C. & Corral-Higuera, R. (2018). Sustainable social housing: The comparison of the Mexican funding program for housing solutions and building sustainability rating systems. Building and Environment, 133: 103-122. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2018.02.017.
Seo, C., Sohn, H., Choi, Y. & Kim, J. (2016). Spatial process for housing prices in Seoul using spatiotemporal local G statistics. Spatial Information Research, 24(2): 155-164. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41324-016-0002-5.
Shahabi, A. (2018). Government investment and housing needs in Iran. Urban Planning Review, 20(3): 90-104.
Skutsch, M. & Johnson, M. (2007). Using the Delphi method in health care. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 60(1): 78-86.
Soja, E.W. (2010). Seeking Spatial Justice. University of Minnesota Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5749/minnesota/9780816666676.001.0001.
Soltani, A. & Lee, C.L. (2024). The non-linear dynamics of South Australian regional housing markets: A machine learning approach. Applied Geography, 166: 103248.
Soltani, A., Heydari, M., Aghaei, F. & Pettit, C.J. (2022). Housing price prediction incorporating spatio-temporal dependency into machine learning algorithms. Cities, 131: 103941.
Soltani, A., Pettit, C.J., Heydari, M. & Aghaei, F. (2021). Housing price variations using spatio-temporal data mining techniques. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 1-29.
Sururi, A. (2022). A bibliometric analysis of housing and settlement research. Journal of Quality Measurement and Analysis JQMA, 18(3): 17-36.
Umbro, M. (2016). Social housing: The environmental sustainability on more dimensions. Social and Behavioral Sciences, 223: 251-256.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.359.
UN Human Rights Council. (2017). Report of the Special Rapporteur on Adequate Housing as a component of the right to an adequate standard of living, and on the right to non-discrimination. in this context. No. A/HRC/34/51. Geneva: UN.
UN-Habitat. (2017). The New Urban Agenda. Available at: https://www.unhabitat.org/.
UN-Habitat. (2018). Housing for All: The Challenge of Affordability. Available at: https://www.unhabitat.org/.
United Nations Children's Fund. (2018). Social Protection Programs in Iran.
United Nations Development Programme. (2021). Poverty Eradication and Housing Security.
United Nations Human Settlements Programme. (2018). Housing for All: The Challenge of Affordability.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. (2019). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision (ST/ESA/SER.A/420). New York: United Nations.
United Nations. (2015). Sustainable Development Goals: Goal 11.
United Nations. (2018). The 2018 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects: Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/420). Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/files/documents/2020/Jan/un_2018_worldcities_databooklet.pdf.
Wetzstein, S. (2017). The global urban housing affordability crisis. Urban studies, 54(14): 3159-3177. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098017711649.
Winston, N. (2022). Sustainable community development: Integrating social and environmental sustainability for sustainable housing and communities. Sustainable Development, 30(1): 191-202. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.2238.
World Bank. (2018). Inclusive Cities Approach: Tackling Urban Poverty and Inequality. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/.
World Bank. (2018). Inclusive Cities Approach: Tackling Urban Poverty and Inequality.
World Bank. (2018). Iran Housing Sector Review.
World Economic Forum. (2019). Future of Construction and Housing.
Yazdani, R. & Ahmadi, L. (2021). Housing quality and middle-class neglect in Iranian urban planning. Housing Studies, 24(6): 134-150.
Zadeh, A.V. & Moulaert, F. (2024). Impact of Commodification of Formal Land and Housing Markets in Iran on Decent Housing for Low-Income Households. In: Innovations for Land Management, Governance, and Land Rights for Sustainable Urban Transitions: The Middle Eastern Perspectives. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
Zali, N., Amiri, S., Yigitcanlar, T. & Soltani, A. (2022). Autonomous vehicle adoption in developing countries: futurist insights. Energies, 15(22): 8464.
Zanganeh, M. (2020). Policy fragmentation in Iranian housing sector. Policy Analysis Journal, 31(1): 76-89.
Zhang, K. & Yan, D. (2023). Enhancing the community environment in populous residential districts: Neighborhood amenities and residents’ daily needs. Sustainability, 15(17): 13255.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Ali Soltani, Majid Goodarzi, Zahra Soltani, Fahime Fadaei Jazi
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Title, logo and layout of journal Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series are reserved trademarks of Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series.Stats
Number of views and downloads: 78
Number of citations: 0
