Poland’s business cycle in the context of the world cycle
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2009.007Keywords
business cycle theoryAbstract
The analysis begins with a synthetic discussion of the current state of the business cycle theory. Three groups of current theories have been briefly discussed: the real business cycle theory, the Neoschumpeter theory and those formulated within the framework of the new Keynesian economy. A common belief that deviations of production and employment from so-called natural levels are caused by various kinds of shocks of a random nature, coexists with these theories. This belief is characteristic of representatives of the new classical economy and of monetarists.
It was assumed in this article that proving the rhythmicallity of oscillations which occur in reality is a sine qua non condition for including them in the regularity of development. This rhythmicallity should express itself in a comparatively small differentiation of duration, i.e. the cycle period. After accepting a quite elaborate definition of a cycle, most justified from the theoretical point of view, its periods in American, German and Polish economies were analysed. A period was counted from the beginning of the phase of revival in one business cycle to the beginning of the phase of revival in the next one. A very close resemblance between the cycle course in Poland and the compared economies was found.
References
Aghion P., Hewitt P., On the Macroeconomic Effects of Major Technological Change [w:] Helpman E. (ed.), General Purpose Technologies and Economic Growth, The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998,
Balcerowicz L., Socjalizm, kapitalizm, transformacja, Wydawnictwo Naukowe PWN, Warszawa 1997,
Benassi C., Chrico A., Colombo C., The New Keynesian Economics, Oxford UK – Cambridge USA 1994,
Benhabib J., Rogerson R., Wright R., Homework in Macroeconomics I: Basic Theory; Homework in Macroeconomics: Aggregate Fluctuations, NBER Working Paper No. 3344, Cambridge, MA, 1990,
Burns A. F., Mitchell W. C., Measuring Business Cycles, Studies in Business Cycles, New York 1947,
DeJong D., Ingram B., Wen Y., Whiteman C., Cyclical Implications of the Variable Utilization of Physical and Human Capital, University of Pittsburg Working Paper, Pittsburgh 1996,
Gomułka S., Polska reforma gospodarcza w latach 1990-91. Zasady, środki działania i wyniki reformy [w:] Gospodarka polska 1990-1993. Ocena doświadczeń – postulaty polityki gospodarczej, Studia i Materiały, Polska Akademia Nauk, Instytut Nauk Ekonomicznych, Warszawa 1993, z. 43,
Greenwald B. C., Stiglitz J., New and Old Keynesians, Journal of Economic Perspectives 1993, Winter,
Kołodko G., W., Transformacja polskiej gospodarki. Sukces czy porażka?, Polska Oficyna Wydawnicza „BGW”, Warszawa 1992,
Kydland F., Prescott E., Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica 1982, Vol. 50,
Mankiw N. G., Taylor M., P., Economics, Thomson Learning, Australia-Canada-Mexico-Singapore-Spain-United Kingdom-Unites States 2006,
Polszakiewicz B., Czworokąt niespójnych rozwiązań systemowych w polskiej polityce stabilizacyjnej [w:] Polszakiewicz B., Boehlke J., Własność i kontrola w teorii i praktyce, część 1, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika, Toruń 2007.
Polszakiewicz B., Periodyzacja współczesnego cyklu koniunkturalnego jako przesłanka efektywnej polityki stabilizacji [w:] Polszakiewicz B., Boehlke J. (red.), Ład instytucjonalny w gospodarce, t. I, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Mikołaja Kopernika, Toruń 2005,
Polszakiewicz B., Podstawowe prawidłowości cyklicznego rozwoju gospodarki kapitalistycznej, Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Warszawa 1989,
Polszakiewicz B., Synchronizacja czy dezintegracja światowego cyklu koniunkturalnego? [w:] Borkowska B., Wrzeszcz-Kamińska G., (red.), Prace naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej im. Oskara Langego we Wrocławiu, Ekonomia 2006, nr 1131,
Prescott E., Theory Ahead of Business-Cycle Measurement, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 1986, Vol. 10,
Reading S., The Low-Skill, Low-Quality Trap: Strategic Complementarities between Human and R&D, The Economic Journal 1996, Vol. 106,
Siebert R., Multiproduct Competition, Learning-by-doing and Price-Cost Margins over the Product Life Cycle: Evidence from the DRAM Industry, Discussion Paper, Wissenschaftszentrum, Berlin 1999,
Tichy G. J., Konjunkturschwankungen. Theorie, Messung, Prognose, Berlin-Heidelberg-New York 1976.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Stats
Number of views and downloads: 422
Number of citations: 0