THE EXCHANGE RATE INFLUENCE THE DYNAMICS OF THE POLISH TRADE TURNOVER WITH MAIN TRADE PARTNERS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EiP.2006.021Abstract
The aim of the paper is to verify by research theoretical concepts which explain how the rate of exchange influences trade turnover. The research is based on Poland and its main trade partners.
The theoretical analysis how rate of exchange influences trade turnover was based on the two models of the rate of exchange - monetary and elasticity. The effect of the internal and external business cycle on the export and import were also taken into the consideration.
The study concentrates on bilateral turnover between Poland and Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, USA and Great Britain in the years 1994-2004.
As the methods of research were used filters of Henderson and Hodrick-Prescott, the correlation analysis, the regression analysis and Granger causality test.
The empirical analysis confirms the real rate of exchange is the substantial factor which influences bilateral trade turnover of Poland with its main trade partners. In case of export the increase of the real rate of exchange is the cause the Polish export growth measured in dollars and reverse. It means that the quantity effect is stronger than the price effect. In case of import the increase of the real rate of exchange causes the decrease of the value of the Polish import measured in dollars and reverse. The trade turnover reacts on the change of the real rate of exchange in the same quarter or with delay of maximum 4 quarters. The changes of the real rate of exchange of the main trade partners usually cause less then proportional changes of the Polish export and import. The research confirms also the business cycle in the country and abroad substantial influences bilateral trade turnover.
References
Aczel A. D., Statystyka w zarządzaniu, PWN, Warszawa 2000.
Caves R. E., Frankel J. A., Jones R. W., Handel i finanse międzynarodowe, PWE, Warszawa 1998.
Chadha B., Prasad E., Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan, IMF Staff Papers, 1997, No. 3.
Granger C. W. J., Investigating Casual Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods, Econometrica, 1969, vol. 37.
Hermann C., Realer Wechselkurs und gesamtwirschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland, Wirtschaftsdienst, 1996, No. 9.
Jaeger A., Mechanical Detrending by Hodrick – Prescott Filtering: A Note, Empirical Economics, 1994, vol. 19.
Krugman P. A., Obstfeld M., Międzynarodowe stosunki gospodarcze, t. 2, PWN, Warszawa 1997.
Kydland F. E., Prescott E. C., Business cycles: Real fact and a monetary myth, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 1990, vol.14.
Lubiński M., Analiza koniunktury i badanie rynków, Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa 2002.
Marczewski K., Zmiany kursu walutowego a ceny i reakcje przedsiębiorstw w handlu zagranicznym, IKiCHZ, Warszawa 2002.
Międzynarodowe stosunki gospodarcze, red. A. Budnikowski, E. Kawecka-Wyrzykowska, PWE, Warszawa 1998.
Misala J., Współczesne teorie wymiany międzynarodowej i zagranicznej polityki ekonomicznej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa, Warszawa 2001.
Rekowski M., Model kształtowania się dynamiki eksportu rozwiniętych krajów kapitalistycznych w cyklu koniunkturalnym, Wydawnictwo AE, Poznań 1981.
Sobczyk M., Statystyka, PWN, Warszawa 2001.
Samuelson P. A., Nordhaus W. D., Ekonomia, t. 2, PWN, Warszawa 1996.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Stats
Number of views and downloads: 2447
Number of citations: 0
