MODELING RELATIONS BETWEEN SELECTED MACROECONOMIC PROCESSES AND THE WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX

Abstract

The relations between a stock market and macroeconomic processes are objects of interest of this paper. The existence of the long-run dependence between the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index and selected macroeconomic processes was demonstrated. A positive influence on the WIG index in the cointegrating vector had the GDP and the first differences of the money supply, whereas a negative one the rate of inflation and the CRB commodities index. Significant short-term relations were also observed. A positive influence on the first differences of the WIG index had the lagged first differences of the CRB index and a negative one the lagged second differences of the money supply. The results of the research are typical for emerging markets. Furthermore they show that analyzed processes do not have a meaningful impact on the short-term fluctuations of stock prices quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.