On certain approaches to the control methods development for the precipitation formation processes in convective clouds

Vitaly A. Shapovalov, Ludmila M. Fedchenko, Boris P. Koloskov, Aleksey A. Bychkov, Boris A. Ashabokov, Alexander V. Shapovalov

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12775/EQ.2019.020


The article aims at searching for the optimal way of emission of ice nucleating agent in convective cloud in order to prevent ‎formation of harmful hail by analyzing simulations of this process within a numerical model ‎of cloud‎. The state of the physics of clouds and active influences on them is discussed. It is noted that at the present time studies of the regularities of the formation and development of clouds as a whole begin taking into account their systemic properties. The main directions of research at the next stage of its development are discussed. The features of the existing methods of active action on convective clouds are noted, the main tasks encountered in the development of methods for controlling sedimentation in convective clouds by introducing reagents are formulated. It is noted that research on the development of methods for active influence on clouds should be conducted on the basis of new and more effective approaches, which should be based on the extensive use of mathematical modeling. Some approaches to solving this problem are discussed. According to the authors, the most promising of them are approaches based on the theory of optimal control and bifurcation theory. Some results of numerical modeling of the active effect on convective clouds are given.


physics of clouds; convective clouds; hail formation; multidimensional ‎models of clouds; ‎artificial modification of convective clouds; optimal control; bifurcation theory

Full Text:



Ashabokov B.A., Fedchenko L.M., Shapovalov A.V. & Shoranov R.A., 1994, Numerical studies of the formation and growth of hail with the natural development of the cloud and the active influence. Meteorology and Hydrology 1: 41-48.

Ashabokov B.A., Shapovalov A.V., Kuliev D.D., Prodan K.A. & Shapovalov V.A. 2014, Numerical Simulation of Thermodynamic, Microstructural, and Electric Characteristics of Convective Clouds at the Growth and Mature Stages. Radiophysics and Quantum Electronics 56(11): 811-817. (http://doi.org/10.1007/S11141-014-9483-Z).

Ashabokov B.A. & Shapovalov A.V., 1996, Numerical model of formation of microstructure control hail clouds, Proceedings of the Academy of Sciences. Physics of the Atmosphere and the Ocean 32(3): 364-369.

Ashabokov B.A. & Shapovalov A.V., 2008, Convective clouds: numerical models and simulation results in natural and active environments. Publishing house KBSC RAS, Nal’chik.

Ashabokov B.A., Fedchenko L.M., Tapashenkhanov V.O., Shapovalov A.V., Shapovalov ‎V.A., Makuashev M.K., Kagermazov A.Kh., Sozaeva L.T., Tashilova A.A. & Kesheva ‎L.A., 2013, The physics of hail clouds and active influences on them: state and ‎development trends. Pechatnyj dvor, Nal’chik.‎

Ashabokov B.A., Fedchenko L.M., Shapovalov A.V., Kalov Kh.M., Kalov R.Kh, Tashilova A.A. & Shapovalov V.A., 2018, Mathematical Modeling of the Influence of the Wind Field Structure in the Atmosphere on the Cloud Formation Processes. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences 8(1): 84-96. (doi: 10.4236/acs.2018.81006).

Bathiany S., Dijkstra H., Crucifix M., Dakos V., Brovkin V., Williamson M.S., Lenton T. & Scheffer M., 2016, Beyond bifurcation: using complex models to understand and predict abrupt climate change.

Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System 1(1): dzw004. (https://doi.org/10.1093/climsys/dzw004).

Bychkov A.A. & Shapovalov V.A., 2017, Formation of Bulk Electric Charges and Fields during Development of Thunderstorm Clouds, Research India Publications. International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, ISSN 0973-4562 12(23): 13150-13157.

Chae S., Chang K.-H., Seo S., Jeong J.-Y., Kim, B.-J. Kim Ch.K., Yum S.S. & Kim J., 2018, Numerical Simulations of Airborne Glaciogenic Cloud Seeding Using the WRF Model with the Modified Morrison Scheme over the Pyeongchang Region in the Winter of 2016. Advances in Meteorology, ID 8453460. (https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/8453460).

Clark T., 1979, Numerical simulation with a tree-dimension cloud model: lateral boundary condition experiments and Multiceller severe storm simulations. J. Atm. Sci. 36(11): 2191-2215.

Cotton W.R., Stephens M.A., Nehrkorn T. & Tripoli G.J, 1982, The Colorado State University three-dimensional cloud/mesoscale Model. Part II: An Ice Phase Parameterization. J. Rech. Atmos. 16: 295-320.

Curic M., Lompar M., Romanic Dj., Zou L. & Liang H., 2019, Three-Dimensional Modelling of Precipitation Enhancement by Cloud Seeding in Three Different Climate Zones. Atmosphere 10: 294. (doi:10.3390/atmos10060294).

Dortmans B., Langford W.F. & Willms A.R., 2019, An energy balance model for paleoclimate transitions. Climate of the Past 15: 493-520. (https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-493-2019).

Dovgaluk Yu.A., Veremei N.E., Vladimirov S.A., Drofa A.S., Zatevakhin M.A., Ignatiev A.A., Morozov V.N., Pastushkov R.S., Sinkevich A.A. & Shapovalov A.V., 2016, The concept of development of numerical nonstationary three-dimensional model of precipitation forming convective cloud in natural conditions and during active modifications. Proceedings of A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory 582: 7-44.

Drofa A.S., 2010, Research on effects of hygroscopic particles to warm convective clouds on the numerical modeling results. Bulletin of Russian Academy of Sciences. FAO 46(3): 357-367.

Farley R.B., 1987, Numerical modeling of hailstone growth. Part III: Simulation of an Alberta hailstorm – natural seeded cases. J. Claim, Appl. Met. 26(7): 789-812.

Feist M.M., Westbrook C.D., Clark P.A., Stein T.H.M., Lean H.W. & Stirling, A.J., 2019, Statistics of convective cloud turbulence from a comprehensive turbulence retrieval method for radar observations. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 145(719): 727-744. (doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3462).

Kogan E.L., Mazin I.P., Sergeev B.N. & Khvorostyanov V.I., 1984, Numerical modeling of clouds. Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow.

Koloskov B.P., Korneev V.P. & Shchukin G.G., 2012, Methods and means of modification of clouds, precipitation and fog. RSHU Publishers, St. Petersburg.

Orville R.D. & Kopp F.J., 1977, Numerical simulation of the life history of a hailstorm. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 34(10): 1596-1618. (https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1977)034<1596:NSOTLH>2.0.CO;2).

Pastushkov R.S., 2016, The model of convective cloud modification with ice-forming aerosols. Present-day status and perspective. Proceedings of A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory 582: 128-158.

Pontryagin L.S., Boltyansky V.G., Gamkrelidze R.V. & Mishchenko E.F., 1976, Mathematical theory of optimal processes. Nauka, Moscow.

Shapovalov V.A., Shapovalov A.V., Koloskov B.P., Kalov R.Kh., Stasenko V.N., 2018, Numerical Study of the Dynamic, Thermodynamic and Microstructural Parameters of Convective Clouds. Natural Science 10: 63-69. (doi: 10.4236/ns.2018.102006.).

Shmeter S.M., 1987, Thermodynamics and physics of convective clouds. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad.

Stephens G.L., Christensen M., Andrews T., Haywood J., Malavelle F.F., Suzuki K. Jing X., Lebsock M., Li J.-L.F. & Ousmane Sy H.T., 2019, Cloud Physics from Space. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. (https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3589).

Straka J.M., 2009, Cloud and precipitation microphysics, Principles and Parameterizations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,

UCP, 2019, Understanding Clouds and Precipitation. Conference Proceedings, Harnack-Haus (Max-Planck-Institut für Meterorologie), Berlin, February 25– March 1 2019. (https://indico.mpimet.mpg.de/event/1/).

Veremei N.E., Dovgaluk Yu.A., Zatevakhin M.A., Ignatiev A.A., Morozov V.N. & Pastushkov R.S., 2016, Evaluation of water resources available for active modifications of convective clouds by means of hygroscopical reagent. Proceedings of A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory 582: 45-91.

Vladimirov S.A. & Pastushkov R.S., 2016, The complex method of convective cloud seeding for purposes to regulate precipitation. Three-dimensional numerical simulation. Proceedings of A.I. Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory 582: 116-127.

Partnerzy platformy czasopism