Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series
Research of functional changes in foreign exchange rate EUR/ UAH under conditions of economic transformation in Ukraine
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/21534
Abstract
The article substantiates the need to conduct research into the factors changing the exchange rate between the euro and the Ukrainian hryvnia (EUR/UAH) due to the fact that, in the last few years, the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia has destabilised the economic environment for entrepreneurship. Thus, this work analyses the determinants of the exchange rate in Ukraine; the investigated correlation between the EUR/UAH exchange rate and a set of factors confirmed that changes in money supply and government debt correlated tightly with rises and falls in the EUR/UAH exchange rate. By contrast, other factors (GDP, budget deficit, export operations, the positive balance of payments, inflation, public debt) have statistically insignificant correlations with the exchange rate and are not included in the regression model. It is suggested to harmonise monetary policy with fiscal policy, which has the greatest influence on the exchange rate, as well as to analyse the connection between these policies and the country’s foreign trade policy, which will allow the exchange rate to be stabilised and ensure suitable conditions for the economic growth of foreign economic entities.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
Abbas, Q. Iqbal, J. Ayaz (2012). Relationship between GDP, Inflation, and Real Interest rate with Exchange Rate Fluctuation of African Countries, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 2(3):132 – 142.
Boykorayev, B. (2008). Factors that determine nominal exchange rates and empirical evidence of cross-sectional analysis. MSc in Finance and International Business. Aarhus School of Business. 1-65. URL: http://pure.au.dk/portal/files/3262/Bahodir_ (accessed: 30.12.2018).
Dornbush R. (1976). Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Political Economy. 84(6): 1161 –1176.
Fatiukha, N.H. Tsyhanok, D.V. (2017). Correlation-Regression Analysis of Currency Exchange Rate, Ahrosvit, 22: 39-41. URL: http://www.agrosvit.info/pdf/22_2017/8.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2018).
Goudarzi, M. Khanarinejad, K. Ardakan, Z.(2012), Investigation of the Factors Affecting Real Exchange Rate in Iran, Acta Universitatis Danubius: Œconomica, 8(4): 55-67. URL: http://journals.univ-danubius.ro/index.php/oeconomica/article/view/1299 (accessed: 21.12.2018).
Hartley, P.R. (1983). Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market. Chapter in NBER book Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, editor Jacob A. Frenkel. 153-188. Published by University of Chicago Press. URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c11379.pdf (accessed: 21.12.2018).
Hsing, Yu. (2015). Short-run determinants of the USD/PLN exchange rate and policy implications. Theoretical and Applied Economics, XXII. 2(603): 247-254. URL: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/1099.pdf (accessed: 20.12.2018).
IndexMundi (2017). Ukraine - Net financial account. URL: https://www.indexmundi.com/facts/ukraine/net-financial-account (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Frenkel, J. (1976). A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence, Scand. J. Econ.. – March. – Р. 200–224
Kassel, H. (1995), Inflation and Currency Exchange Rate. M: Elf-Press. p. 104.
Krasnikova, L.I. Harmel, K.V. (2002). Analysis of Factors of Formation and Dynamics of Currency Exchange Rate, Scientific Notes, 20(Economic Sciences): 21-25. URL: http://ekmair.ukma.edu.ua/bitstream/handle/123456789/9053/Krasnikova_Analiz_chynnykiv_formuvannya.pdf (accessed: 01.11.2018).
Lane, Ph. (1999).What Determines the Nominal Exchange Rate? Some Cross-Sectional Evidence, The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue canadienne d'Economique, 32(1): 118-138. URL: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/1998/9812.pdf (accessed: 30.11.2018).
Law of Ukraine On Principles of Domestic and Foreign Policy No. 2411-VIof 1 July 2010. URL: http://zakon2.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2411-17 (accessed: 30.11.2018).
Lesnik, T.M. (2017). Influence of Macroeconomic Indices on the Exchange Rate of National Currency; Regression Analysis, Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University, Economics. 2(8): 177-182. URL: http://www.msu.edu.ua/visn/?p=2871〈=uk (accessed: 30.11.2018).
Mariano, Christine Niziel Q. Sablan, Vanessa F. Sardon, Joshua Ray C. Paguta, Ronald B. (2016). Investigation of the Factors Affecting Real Exchange Rate in the Philippines. Rev. Integr. Bus. Econ. Res., Vol 5(4): 171-202. URL: http://sibresearch.org/uploads/3/4/0/9/34097180/riber_s16-073_171-202.pdf (accessed: 29.12.2018).
Markusenko, M.V. (2015). Theories of Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments, Their Role in the Formation of the State Monetary Policy in the Context of Globalization. Scientific works of the Belarusian State Economic University/Education Ministry of the Republic Belarus, Belarus State Economic University. Editors.: V.N. Shymov et al., Minsk, BSEU. 8: 199-205. URL: http://edoc.bseu.by:8080/bitstream/edoc/27457/1/Markusenko%2C_M._V..pdf (accessed: 29.11.2018).
Official site of Eurostat database. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Official site of Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. URL: https://index.minfin.com.ua/finance/budget/gov/ (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Official site of the European Central Bank. URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Official site of World Bank Open Data. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2016&locations=UA&start=1988&view=chart&year_low_desc=false (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Parveen, S. Khan, A.Q. Ismail, M. (2012). Analysis of the factors affecting exchange rate variability in Pakistan. Academic Research International. Vol. 2, No. 3, May. P. 670-674. URL: www.savap.org.pk (accessed: 30.11.2018).
Rudenko, V.M. (2012). Mathematic Statistics: Textbook/ V.M. Rudenko. – К.: Center of Academic Literature,. p. 304.
Strategy of Sustainable Development “Ukraine – 2020” approved by the Decree of the President of Ukraine No.5/2015 of 12 January 2015. URL: http://zakon0.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/5/2015 (accessed: 20.12.2018).
The Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (2017). The BasicPrinciples of Monetary Policy for 2018 and the Medium-Term Perspective. Approved by the Decree of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine of 12 September 2017. Kyiv. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=55564681 (accessed: 20.12.2018).
The Economist (2018). The Big Mac index. URL: https://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index (accessed: 25.10.2018).
The National Bank of Ukraine (2015). The Comprehensive Program for the Development of the Financial Sector of Ukraine until 2020 approved by the Resolution of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine No. 391 of 18 June 2015. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/doccatalog/document?id=43352266 (accessed: 25.10.2018).
The National Bank of Ukraine (2018). Official Currency Exchange Rate. URL: https://bank.gov.ua/control/uk/curmetal/currency/search/form/period (accessed: 25.10.2018).
Trading economics (2018). Euro Area Current Account to GDP. URL: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/current-account-to-gdp (accessed: 02.09.2018).
Twarowska, K. Kakol, M. (2014), Analysis of Factors Affecting Fluctuations in the Exchange Rate of Polish Zloty against Euro, Management, Knowledge and Learning, 889 – 898. URL: http://www.toknowpress.net/ISBN/978-961-6914-09-3/papers/ML14-652.pdf (accessed: 30.12.2018).
Vakhnenko, T.P. (2004). Theoretical foundations of foreign exchange rate formation: concepts and models. Economics and Forecasting. 2: 21-30. URL: http://eip.org.ua/docs/EP_04_2_21_uk.pdf (accessed: 25.12.2018).
World Economic Forum (2016). The Global Enabling Trade Report 2016. URL: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GETR_2016_report.pdf (accessed: 01.10.2018).
Print ISSN: 1732-4254
Online ISSN: 2083-8298