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Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

Research of functional changes in foreign exchange rate EUR/ UAH under conditions of economic transformation in Ukraine
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Research of functional changes in foreign exchange rate EUR/ UAH under conditions of economic transformation in Ukraine

Authors

  • Oksana Oliinyk State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”
  • Valentyna Ksendzuk State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”
  • Larysa Sergiienko State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”
  • Iryna Lehan State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2020-0018

Keywords

foreign currency exchange rate, currency risk, EUR/UAH, GDP, inflation, foreign trade, external debt, Ukraine, regression analysis

Abstract

The article substantiates the need to conduct research into the factors changing the exchange rate between the euro and the Ukrainian hryvnia (EUR/UAH) due to the fact that, in the last few years, the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia has destabilised the economic environment for entrepreneurship. Thus, this work analyses the determinants of the exchange rate in Ukraine; the investigated correlation between the EUR/UAH exchange rate and a set of factors confirmed that changes in money supply and government debt correlated tightly with rises and falls in the EUR/UAH exchange rate. By contrast, other factors (GDP, budget deficit, export operations, the positive balance of payments, inflation, public debt) have statistically insignificant correlations with the exchange rate and are not included in the regression model. It is suggested to harmonise monetary policy with fiscal policy, which has the greatest influence on the exchange rate, as well as to analyse the connection between these policies and the country’s foreign trade policy, which will allow the exchange rate to be stabilised and ensure suitable conditions for the economic growth of foreign economic entities.

Author Biographies

Oksana Oliinyk, State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”

Doctor of Economics, Professor, Vice-rector

Valentyna Ksendzuk, State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”

Ph.D., Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Safety, Public Management and Administration

Larysa Sergiienko, State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”

Ph.D., Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Safety, Public Management and Administration

Iryna Lehan, State University “Zhytomyr Polytechnic”

Associate Professor of the Department of Economic Safety, Public Management and Administration

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Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series

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Published

2020-06-01

How to Cite

1.
OLIINYK, Oksana, KSENDZUK, Valentyna, SERGIIENKO, Larysa and LEHAN, Iryna. Research of functional changes in foreign exchange rate EUR/ UAH under conditions of economic transformation in Ukraine. Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series. Online. 1 June 2020. Vol. 48, no. 48, pp. 141-154. [Accessed 7 July 2025]. DOI 10.2478/bog-2020-0018.
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