Research of functional changes in foreign exchange rate EUR/ UAH under conditions of economic transformation in Ukraine

Oksana Oliinyk, Valentyna Ksendzuk, Larysa Sergiienko, Iryna Lehan

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/21534

Abstract


The article substantiates the need to conduct research into the factors changing the exchange rate between the euro and the Ukrainian hryvnia (EUR/UAH) due to the fact that, in the last few years, the devaluation of the Ukrainian hryvnia has destabilised the economic environment for entrepreneurship. Thus, this work analyses the determinants of the exchange rate in Ukraine; the investigated correlation between the EUR/UAH exchange rate and a set of factors confirmed that changes in money supply and government debt correlated tightly with rises and falls in the EUR/UAH exchange rate. By contrast, other factors (GDP, budget deficit, export operations, the positive balance of payments, inflation, public debt) have statistically insignificant correlations with the exchange rate and are not included in the regression model. It is suggested to harmonise monetary policy with fiscal policy, which has the greatest influence on the exchange rate, as well as to analyse the connection between these policies and the country’s foreign trade policy, which will allow the exchange rate to be stabilised and ensure suitable conditions for the economic growth of foreign economic entities.


Keywords


foreign currency exchange rate, currency risk, EUR/UAH, GDP, inflation, foreign trade, external debt, Ukraine, regression analysis

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References


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