Shifts in Central Asia's Surface Energy Balance from 1948 to 2048: Historical Trends and Statistical Projections
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EQ.2026.045Abstract
Central Asia, a critical climate hotspot with arid and semi-arid landscapes, has experienced significant hydroclimatic changes under global warming. This study examines spatiotemporal dynamics and future projections of sensible (SHF), latent (LHF), and ground (GHF) heat fluxes across the region from 1948 to 2048, using observational data (NASA Giovanni, 1948–2024) and statistical forecasts (2025–2048). Trend analyses reveal a significant decline in SHF (−0.082 W m⁻² yr⁻¹, p < 0.001) and an increase in LHF (0.056 W m⁻² yr⁻¹, p < 0.001), indicating a repartitioning of surface energy toward enhanced evapotranspiration driven by warming and wetting trends. GHF showed no significant change. Projections suggest continued SHF reductions and LHF increases, with uncertainties reflecting potential climate feedbacks. These findings have implications for drought risk, boundary-layer dynamics, and cryospheric changes in this geopolitically and ecologically sensitive region, and provide a reproducible framework for integrating heat flux trajectories into climate assessments.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Seyed Omid Reza Shobairi, Yaning Chen, Farhod Nasrulloev; Hossein Azadi; Behnam Asghari Beirami
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