Climate-driven glacier dynamics in the upper Amu Darya Basin, Tajikistan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EQ.2026.053Keywords
climate change impacts, glacier monitoring, pamir mountains, remote sensing, water securityAbstract
The Amu Darya River basin, particularly its Khingov and Surkhob sub-basins in Tajikistan, is an important headwater area in Central Asia. Glaciers in this region play a critical role in sustaining freshwater resources for agriculture, hydropower, and livelihoods. The basins together account for 13.9% of Tajikistan’s glacier coverage and 9.1% of Central Asia’s total. This study assessed glacier changes from the USSR Glacier Inventory (1971, 1978) to 2022, using remote sensing, GIS analysis, and hydroclimatic records (1961–2022). We quantified glacier retreat, identified surge-type glaciers, and evaluated climate-driven hydrological impacts. In the Khingov basin, glacier area decreased from 164.2 km² (1978) to 150.7 km² (2022), while in the Surkhob basin glaciers declined from 401.1 km² (1971) to 348.6 km² (2022). Glacier losses were particularly severe (20–38%) in the Yarkhich sub-basin.Our results indicate a mean temperature increase of 1.6 °C during 1961–2022, driving glacier shrinkage and altering runoff generation. Below 3300 m, runoff is predominantly snowmelt-driven (60–64%), whereas above 3500 m, glacier meltwater contributes up to 23% of total runoff. More than 143 surge-type glaciers (26% of the total) were identified in the basins, about 20% of which show recent activity with hydrological implications. These findings highlight the urgency of strengthening glacier monitoring and implementing adaptive water management strategies to ensure regional water security under ongoing climate change.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Farhod Nasrulloev , Seyed Omid Reza Shobairi, Aminjon Gulakhmadov, Sharofzoda Farhod ; Parvizi Hotam; Halimov Ardamehr , Nekruz Gulahmadov, Firdavs Vosidov
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