Attribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation NPP dynamics in southwest China: A zonal comparison between Karst and Non-Karst areas
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/EQ.2026.052Keywords
climate change, human activities, contribution analysis, Karst ecosystem, land use changeAbstract
Abstract. To elucidate the geological background-dependent responses of vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) to climate change and human activities in Southwest China, this study integrated multi-source datasets from 2001 to 2019, including NPP, land use, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and sunshine duration. Trend analysis and partial derivative analysis were employed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of NPP in karst and non-karst areas and to quantify the respective effects of climate change and human activities. The results showed that: (1) NPP exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend across the study area, with a rate of increase of 3.35 gC·m⁻²·yr⁻¹. The mean NPP and growth rate were slightly higher in karst areas than in non-karst areas. However, the proportion of areas showing significant increases was lower, and the risk of localized degradation was higher, in karst areas. (2) From 2001 to 2019, land-use transition patterns in both karst and non-karst areas of Southwest China were dominated by shrubland-to-forestland and cropland-to-shrubland transitions. NPP changes differed between the two areas under the same land-use transitions. In areas transitioning from cropland to forestland, the NPP increase was lower in karst areas (135.57 gC·m⁻²) than in non-karst areas (188.58 gC·m⁻²), whereas NPP increases in areas transitioning from grassland to forestland or shrubland were greater in karst areas. In addition, forestland-to-shrubland and shrubland-to-cropland transition areas showed opposite NPP change patterns between karst and non-karst areas. (3) The residual-proxy estimate of the human activity contribution to NPP change was 3.09 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹, approximately three times the climatic contribution (1.03 gC m⁻² yr⁻¹) in Southwest China. The estimated human activity contribution was higher in karst areas than in non-karst areas, whereas the climatic contribution was more pronounced in non-karst areas, with precipitation contributing the most. (4) In karst areas, NPP increases were mainly driven by human activities and the combined effects of climate and human activities (accounting for 54% of the area), whereas climate-driven NPP increases were more extensive in non-karst areas (accounting for 33.03% of the area). Overall, the combined effects of climate and human activities exerted a greater influence on NPP changes. These findings highlight the heterogeneous responses of vegetation productivity to climate and human activities under contrasting geological backgrounds and provide a scientific basis for differentiated ecological restoration and carbon sink management in Southwest China.
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Copyright (c) 2026 HUIJUN XIE, Qingjiang Du; Xun Jiang
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