Demographic Dynamics and Household and Similar Waste Generation in Urban and Peri-Urban Areas: The Case of El Hadjar, Berrahal, and Ain Berda Districts of Annaba Province, North-East Algeria

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between population growth and household and similar waste (HSW) production in three inland districts of Annaba Province (Algeria): El Hadjar, Berrahal, and Ain Berda. We hypothesize that population growth in these districts is positively correlated with increases in HSW production, and that waste composition reflects both local consumption patterns and the activity of an informal recovery sector operating upstream of formal collection systems. A methodological approach combining demographic projections, waste flow quantification (2022–2023), and morphological characterization using the MODECOM method was applied. Demographic projections indicate significant population increases across all three districts by 2030, with growth rates ranging from approximately 7% (Ain Berda) to 14% (El Hadjar). HSW production, estimated between 0.68 and 0.99 kg/inhabitant/day, increased by 6.12% overall between 2022 and 2023. A Pearson correlation analysis reveals a near-perfect positive linear relationship between commune-level population size and annual HSW tonnage (r = 0.9998, p < 0.001), confirming the central hypothesis. Morphological analysis highlights a dominant proportion of organic matter (57%), followed by complex compounds (21%) and plastics (15%), consistent with consumption patterns typical of cities in the Global South. Marked seasonal production peaks coincide with the Ramadan period (March–April) and the summer influx (July–August). The low proportion of dry recyclable materials is consistent with the documented presence of an informal recovery sector. These findings underscore the need for integrated, territory-specific waste management strategies that incorporate demographic projections and recovery infrastructure adapted to the predominantly organic waste profile.