Air mobility of people and airport growth potential in regions of Russia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1515/bog-2013-0034Keywords
Russia, airports, regional development, econometrics, forecastingAbstract
The article is about Russian regional airports, air mobility of people in regions of Russia, geographical distribution and results of econometric forecasting of these figures based on demographic and economic factors. Also some historical reviews, a description of the current situation and international comparisons are provided. The research revealed that people’s income and investment (both current and accumulated) are the main factors affecting air transportation growth in the studied airports. In the long-term perspective air traffic of Russian airports can triple by 2030, while Russian air mobility figures can exceed the present ones in Western Europe.
References
Alekseev, K.P.G. and Seixas, J.M., 2009: A multivariate neural forecasting modeling for air transport – Preprocessed by decomposition: A Brazilian application. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 15, Issue 5, pp. 212–216.
Association of airports of civil aviation ‘Airport’, 2012: Assotsiatsiya «Aeroport» grazhdanskoy aviatsii. Statistika perevozok passazhirov osnovnymi aeroportami s 1996 po 2011 gody (Passenger traffic of major airports in 1996–2011 – in Russian), available at: http:// www.airport.org.ru/ap.xls, DoA: 28.05.2013.
Borisov, F., 2012: Portret regionalnogo passazhira (The picture of a regional passenger – in Russian). In: Aviatransportnoye obozreniye, Vol. 134.
Bukalova, M., 2012: Obzor rynka aviaperevozok RF (The review of the air transportation market of Russia – in Russian), available at: http://www.ato.ru/ files/attached_materials/obzor-rynka-aviaperevozokbukalova. pdf, DoA: 28.05.2013
Carson, R.T., Cenesizoglu, T. and Parker, R., 2011: Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel. In: International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 27, Issue 3, pp. 923–941.
Cline, R.C., Ruhl, T.A., Gosling, G.D. and Gillen, D.W., 1998: Air transportation demand forecasts in emerging market economies: a case study of the Kyrgyz Republic in the former Soviet Union. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 4, I. 1, pp. 11–23.
Derudder, B. and Witlox, F., 2008: Mapping world city networks through airline flows: context, relevance, and problems. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 16, I. 5, pp. 337–343.
Evans, A. and Schafer, A., 2011: The impact of airport capacity constraints on future growth in the US air transportation system. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 17, I. 5, pp. 288–295. Fedstat, 2012: Federalnaya sluzhba gosudarstvennoy statistiki. Vozrastno-polovoy sostav naselenya na 1 yanvary tekushchego goda (Population breakdown by age and gender for 1 January of each year – in Russian), available at: http://fedstat.ru/indicators/start.do, DoA: 28.05.2013
Goetz, A.R. and Vowles, T.M., 2009: The good, the bad, and the ugly: 30 years of US airline deregulation. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 17, I. 4, pp. 251–263.
Graham, B., 1999: Airport-specific traffic forecasts: a critical perspective. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 7, I. 4, pp. 285–289.
Hsu, C-I and Liu, S-M., 2003: Predicting city-pair air passenger traffic using grey topological forecasting model. In: Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol. 5, available at: http:// www.easts.info/2003journal/papers/0453.pdf, DoA: 28.05.2013, pp. 453–470.
Isard, W., 1960: Methods of Regional Analysis; an Introduction to Regional Science, Cambridge: Published jointly by the Technology Press of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Wiley, New York. Kazstat, 2012: The agency of statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Demograficheskiy yezhegonik respubliki Kazakhstan (Demographic annual statistic book of the Republic of Kazakhstan – in Russian and Kazakh), available at: http://www.stat.kz/publishing/ Pages/publications.aspx, DoA: 06.08.2013.
Kirillov, P., 2013: Regionalnoye geodemograficheskoye prognozirovanie (Regional geo-demographic forecasting – in Russian), PhD dissertation, Moscow Lomonosov State University, available at: http://www.geogr. msu.ru/science/diss/oby/kirillov.pdf, DoA: 28.05.2013.
Komaristy, Y., 2006: Informatsionno-modelnyy kompleks dlya issledovaniya rynka grazhdanskih aviaperevozok (Data and modelling system for the research of the market of civil air transportation – in Russian), Novosibirsk: Institute of Economics and Organization of Industry, available at: http://komaristye.ru/cv/ book1/book1.pdf, DoA: 28.05.2013.
Kramarenko, A., 2012: Zolotoy vek (Golden Age – in Russian), available at: http://www.aex.ru/ docs/2/2012/8/2/1611/, DoA: 28.05.2013.
Kramarenko, A., 2013: Vozdushnyi transport i skorostnye zhelezhnye dorogi: polye nesluchivsheysya bitvy (Air Transport vs High-Speed Railways: abandoned battleground – In Russian), available at: http://www. ato.ru/content/vozdushnyy-transport-i-skorostnyezheleznye- dorogi-pole-nesluchivsheysya-bitvy, DoA: 06.08.2013.
Lieshout, R., 2012: Measuring the size of an airport’s catchment area. In: Journal of Transport Geogrpahy, Vol. 25, pp. 27–34.
Matthiessen, C.W., 1993: Scandinavian links: Changing the pattern of urban growth and regional air traffic. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 1, I. 2, pp. 117–124.
Nigel, D.P.S., 2002: Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 8, I. 5, pp. 313–324.
Papatheodorou, A. and Arvanitis, P., 2009: Spatial evolution of airport traffic and air transport liberalisation: the case of Greece. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 17, I. 5, pp. 402–412.
Profillidis, V.Α., 2012: An ex-post assessment of a passenger demand forecast of an airport. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 25, pp. 47–49.
Russon, M.G. and Vakil, F., 1995: Population, convenience and distance decay in a short-haul model of United States air transportation. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 3, I. 3, pp. 179–185.
Samagaio, A. and Wolters, M., 2010: Comparative analysis of government forecasts for the Lisbon Airport. In: Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 16, I. 4, pp. 213–217
Sismanidou, A., Tarradellas, J., Bel, G. and Fageda, X., 2013: Estimating potential long-haul air passenger traffic in national networks containing two or more dominant cities. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 26, pp. 108–116.
Stevens, N., Baker, D. and Freestone, R., 2010: Airports in their urban settings: towards a conceptual model of interfaces in the Australian context. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 18, I. 2, pp. 276–284
Strand, S., 1999: Airport-specific traffic forecasts: the resultant of local and non-local forces. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 7, I. 1, pp. 17–29.
Suau-Sanchez, P. and Burghouwt, G., 2011: The geography of the Spanish airport system: spatial concentration and deconcentration patterns in seat capacity distribution, 2001–2008. In: Journal of Transport Geography, Vol. 19, I. 2, pp. 244–254.
Treyvish, A., 2009: Gorod, rayon, strana i mir (City, region, country and the world – in Russian), Moscow: Noviy Khronograf.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Title, logo and layout of journal Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series are reserved trademarks of Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series.Stats
Number of views and downloads: 325
Number of citations: 0
