Forecasting land use and land cover change as a tool for optimising adaptation to climate change: Examples of selected Second-Tier Cities of the V4 Group
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.12775/bgss-2024-0014Keywords
adaptation to climate change, urban studies, geography, planning & development, Markov model, green economy, LULCAbstract
Second-tier cities are an important element in the socio-economic development of each country, including V4 countries. The result is a dynamic change in land use/cover patterns. The article analyses the possibility of using Markov chains to predict changes in land use. The results show that it is possible to use the Markov chains method in proper decision-making in land-use policy, which is combined with the stimulation of sustainable land use. The research results show that Markov chains can be an important tool to guide cities’ climate policies and build their capacity to adapt to climate change.
References
Ali, J., Rahaman, M. & Hossain, S.I. (2022). Urban green spaces for elderly human health: A planning model for healthy city living. Land Use Policy, 114: 105970. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105970.
Andersen, M.S. (2007). An introductory note on the environmental economics of the circular economy. Sustainability Science, 2: 133–140.
Angelo H. & Wachsmuth, D. (2020). Why does everyone think cities can save the planet? Urban Studies, 57(11): 2201–2221.
Atay Kaya, İ. & Kut Görgün, E. (2020). Land use and land cover change monitoring in Bandırma (Turkey) using remote sensing and geographic information systems. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192: 430. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08411-1.
Aurambout, J.P., Schiavina, M., Melchiori, M., Fioretti, C., Guzzo, F., Vandecasteele, I., Proietti, P., Kavalov, B., Panella, F. & Koukoufikis, G. (2021). Shrinking Cities. Available at: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC126011.
Beatley, T. (2000). Green urbanism: Learning from European cities. Island Press, Washington DC.
Bennett, N. & Lemoine, G.J. (2014). What a Difference a Word Makes: Understanding Threats to Performance in a VUCA World. Business Horizons, 57: 311-317.
Bernardini, C. & Irvine, K. (2007). The ‘nature’ of urban sustainability: Private or public greenspaces? WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 102: 661-674. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2495/SDP070642.
Berry, B.J.L. (1971). ‘Monitoring Trends, Forecasting Change and Evaluating Goal Achievement in the Urban Environment: The Ghetto Expansion vs. Decentralization Issue in Chicago as a Case Study. In: Chisholm, M. (ed.), Regional Forecasting. London: Butterworths.
Bindajam, A.A., Mallick, J., Talukdar, S., Islam, A.R.M.T. & Alqadhi, S. (2021). Integration of artificial intelligence–based LULC mapping and prediction for estimating ecosystem services for urban sustainability: past to future perspective. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14: 1887. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-08251-4.
Blam, I., Vitálišová, K., Borseková, K. & Sokołowicz, M.E. (2016). Peculiarities of corporate social responsibility development in the monotowns in post-communist countries. Social Responsibility Journal, 12(3) 463-483.
Bourne, L.S. (1976). Monitoring change and evaluating the impact of planning policy on urban structure: a Markov chain experiment. Plan Canada, 16: 5-14.
Brand, U. (2012). Green economy–the next oxymoron? No lessons learned from failures of implementing sustainable development. GAIA-Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, 21(1): 28-32.
Buček, J. (2002). The role of local self-government in local development during post-socialist period: The case study of Bratislava. Acta Universitatis Carolinae Geographica, 37(2): 105-119.
Budiyantini, Y. & Pratiwi, V. (2016). Peri-urban Typology of Bandung Metropolitan Area. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 227: 833-837. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.06.152.
Cardoso, R.V. & Meijers, E.J. (2017). Secondary Yet Metropolitan? The Challenges of Metropolitan Integration for Second-Tier Cities. Planning Theory & Practice, 18: 616–635. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14649357.2017.1371789.
Chu, D. (2020). Remote Sensing of Land Use and Land Cover in Mountain Region. Springer, Singapore. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7580-4_6.
Ciscar Martinez, J., Ibarreta Ruiz, D., Soria Ramirez, A., Dosio, A., Toreti, A., Ceglar, A., Fumagalli, D., Dentener, F., Lecerf, R., Zucchini, A., Panarello, L., Niemeyer, S., Perez Dominguez, I., Fellmann, T., Kitous, A., Despres, J., Christodoulou, A., Demirel, H., Alfieri, L., Dottori, F., Vousdoukas, M., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Cammalleri, C., Marinho Ferreira Barbosa, P., Micale, F., Vogt, J., Barredo Cano, J., Caudullo, G., Mauri, A., De Rigo, D., Liberta`, G., Durrant, T., Artes Vivancos, T., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Gosling, S., Zaherpour, J., De Roo, A., Bisselink, B., Bernhard, J., Bianchi, A., Rozsai, M., Szewczyk, W., Mongelli, I. & Feyen, L. (2018). Climate impacts in Europe, EUR 29427 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
Clark, W.A. (1965). Markov chain analysis in geography: an application to the movement of rental housing areas. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 55(2): 351-359.
Collins, L. (1972). Industrial migration in Ontario: Forecasting aspects of industrial activity through Markov chain analysis. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.
Czembrowski, P., Kronenberg, J. & Czepkiewicz, M. (2016). Integrating non-monetary and monetary valuation methods – SoftGIS and hedonic pricing. Ecological Economics, 130: 166–175. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.07.004.
De Haas, W., Hassink, J. & Stuiver, M. (2021). The Role of Urban Green Space in Promoting Inclusion: Experiences From the Netherlands. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9: 618198. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.618198.
Desalegn, T., Cruz, F., Kindu, M., Turrión, M.B. & Gonzalo, J. (2014). Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change and socioeconomic conditions of local community in the central highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 21: 406–413. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2014.961181.
Drobniak, A. (2015). Koncepcja urban resilience: narzędzie strategicznej diagnozy i monitoringu miast (The concept of urban resilience: a tool for strategic diagnosis and monitoring of cities – in Polish). Ruch Prawniczy, Ekonomiczny i Socjologiczny, 77(1): 119-143. DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/rpeis.2015.77.1.7.
EEA. (2022). Living in a state of multiple crises. Available at: https://www.eea.europa.eu/articles/summer-2022-living-in-a (Accessed at: 2 February 2023).
ESPON. (2012). SGPTD - Secondary Growth Poles and Territorial Development in Europe; Performance, Policies and Prospects. ESPON & European Institute of Urban Affairs, Liverpool John Moores University, Luxembourg.
European Commission. (2013). Building a Green Infrastructure for Europe, Brussels, 6 May 2013.
Evans, R. (2015). Harnessing the Economic Potential of ‘Second-Tier’ European Cities: Lessons from Four Different State/Urban Systems. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 33: 163–183. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1068/c12183r.
Fallati, L., Savini, A., Sterlacchini, S. & Galli, P. (2017). Land use and land cover (LULC) of the Republic of the Maldives: first national map and LULC change analysis using remote-sensing data. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 189: 417. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-017-6120-2.
Feltynowski, M. (2018). Planowanie przestrzenne gmin wiejskich. Zastosowanie koncepcji polityki opartej na dowodach (Spatial planning of rural communes. Application of an evidence-based policy concept – in Polish). Lodz University Press, Lodz.
Feltynowski, M., Łaszkiewicz, E., Kronenberg, J., Strohbach, M.W., Kabisch, N. & Bergier, T. (2018). Challenges of urban green space management in the face of using inadequate data. Urban forestry & urban greening, 31: 56–66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2017.12.003.
Gomes, L.C., Bianchi, F.J.J.A., Cardoso, I.M., Fernandes Filho, E.I. & Schulte, R.P.O. (2020). Land use change drives the spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem services and their interactions along an altitudinal gradient in Brazil. Landscape Ecology, 35: 1571–1586. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-020-01037-1.
Gottmann, J. (1974). The Evolution of Urban Centrality: Orientations for Research, School of Geography. Research Papers, 8.
Ha, J., Kim, H.J. & With, K.A. (2022). Urban green space alone is not enough: A landscape analysis linking the spatial distribution of urban green space to mental health in the city of Chicago. Landscape and Urban Planning, 218: 104309. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104309.
Hammer, S., Kamal-Chaouiii, L., Robertii, A. & Plouin, M. (2011). Cities and Green Growth: A Conceptual Framework. OECD Regional Development Working Papers, 2011/08. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/5kg0tflmzx34-en.
Harris, C.C. (1968). A Stochastic Process Model of Residential Development. Journal of Regwnal Science, 8: 29-39.
Helbling, M. (2020). Attitudes towards climate change migrants. Climatic Change, 160: 89–102. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02697-3.
Hess, D.J. (2013). Sustainable consumption, energy and failed transitions: the problem of adaptation. In: Cohen, M.J., Szejnwald- Brown, H., Vergragt, Ph. J. (eds.). Innovations in Sustainable Consumption. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK.
Jenks, M. & Jones, C. (2010). Dimensions of the sustainable city. Springer, London–New York.
Koprowska, K., Łaszkiewicz, E. & Kronenberg, J. (2020). Is urban sprawl linked to green space availability? Ecological Indicators, 108: 105723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105723.
Kronenberg, J., Andersson, E., Elmqvist, T., Łaszkiewicz, E., Xue, J. & Khmara, Y. (2024). Cities, planetary boundaries, and degrowth. The Lancet. Planetary Health, 8(4): e234–e241. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00025-1.
Kronenberg, J., Haase, A., Łaszkiewicz, E., Antal, A., Baravikova, A., Biernacka, M., Dushkova, D., Filčak, R., Haase, D., Ignatieva, M., Khmara, Y., Niţă, M. R. & Onose, D.A. (2020). Environmental justice in the context of urban green space availability, accessibility, and attractiveness in postsocialist cities. Cities, 106: 102862. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102862.
Langergraber G., Pucher B., Simperler L., Kisser J., Katsou E., Buehler D., Carmen Garcia Mateo M. & Atanasova N. (2020). Implementing nature-based solutions for creating a resourceful circular city. Blue-Green Systems, 2(1): 173–185.
Langner, M. & Endlicher, W. (2007). Shrinking Cities: Effects on Urban Ecology and Challenges for Urban Development. Available at: https://www.peterlang.com/document/1053645.
Levinson, D. & Chen, W. (2005). Paving new ground: a Markov chain model of the change in transportation networks and land use. In: Levinson, D. and Krizek, K. (Eds.) Elsevier Science.
Loiseau E., Saikku L., Antikainen R., Droste N., Hansjürgens B., Pitkänen K., Leskinen P., Kuikman P. & Thomsen M. (2016). Green Economy and Related Concepts: An Overview. Journal of Cleaner Production, 139: 361-371. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.08.024.
Lucertini, G. & Musco, F. (2020). Circular Urban Metabolism Framework. One Earth, 2: 138-142. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.02.004.
Manyani, A., Shackleton, C.M. & Cocks, M.L. (2021). Attitudes and preferences towards elements of formal and informal public green spaces in two South African towns. Landscape and Urban Planning, 214: 104147. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104147.
Marais L. & Nel V. (2019). Spaces and Planning in Secondary Cities. Sun Media Bloemfontein, Stellenbosch.
Marble, D. (1967). ‘A Simple Markovian Model of Trip Structures in a Metropolitan Area,’ Evanston, Illinois: Northwestern University, Transportation Centre.
Marble, D.F. (1964). A simple Markovian model of trip structures in a metropolitan region. Regional Sci-ence Association Western Section Papers, 150-156.
Mas, J.-F., Lemoine-Rodríguez, R., González-López, R., López-Sánchez, J., Piña-Garduño, A. & Herrera-Flores, E. (2017). Land use/land cover change detection combining automatic processing and visual interpretation. European Journal of Remote Sensing, 50: 626–635. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/22797254.2017.1387505.
McDonough W. & Braungart M. (2013). The Upcycle: Beyond Sustainability-Designing for Abundance. New York: North Point Press.
McLeod K. & Leslie H. (Eds.) (2009). Ecosystem-based management for the oceans. Island Press, Washington.
Measham, T.G., Preston, B.L., Smith, T.F., Brooke, C., Gorddard, R., Withycombe G. & Morrison, C. (2011). Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 16: 889–909. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-011-9301-2.
Meerow, S., Newell, J.P. & Stults, M. (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and Urban Planning, 147: 38–49. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2015.11.011.
Milani, B. (2000). Designing the Green Economy: The Postindustrial Alternative to Corproate Globalization. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Lanham.
Ministry of Climate and Environment. (2020). Badanie świadomości i zachowań ekologicznych mieszkańców Polski. Raport z badania trackingowego (Survey of environmental awareness and behavior of Polish residents. Tracking survey report – in Polish). Available at: https://www.gov.pl/web/klimat/badania-swiadomosci-ekologicznej.
Mölders, N. (2012). Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes. Impact on Climate and Air Quality. Springer, Dordrecht. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-1527-1.
Muller, R. & Middleton, J. (1994). A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara region, Ontario, Canada. Landscape Ecology, 9(2): 151–157. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00124382.
Myrdal, G. (1957). Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. Duckworth, London.
Nguyen, H.K.L. (2018). Detecting and Modeling the Changes of Land Use and Land Cover for Land Use Planning in Da Nang City, Vietnam. Ibidem Press. Available at: https://www.perlego.com/book/773160/detecting-and-modeling-the-changes-of-land-use-and-land-cover-for-land-use-planning-in-da-nang-city-vietnam-pdf.
Pietrzyk-Kaszyńska, A., Czepkiewicz, M. & Kronenberg, J. (2017). Eliciting non-monetary values of formal and informal urban green spaces using public participation GIS. Landscape and Urban Planning, 160: 85–95. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2016.12.012.
Piorr, A., Ravetz, J. & Tosics, I. (2011). Peri-Urbanisation In Europe Towards European Policies to Sustain Urban-Rural Futures: Synthesis report. University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen.
Praveen, K.S. (2018). HR in VUCA World—A Viewpoint & Insight. Notion Press, Chennai, India.
Roberts, B. (2014). Managing Systems of Secondary Cities: Policy Responses in International Development. Cities Alliance/UNOPS, Brussels.
Roberts, B. (2019). Connecting Systems of Secondary Cities. Cities Alliance/UNOPS, Brussels.
Röhr, U. (2011). Green Economy. Die Wirtschaft soll grüner werden–aber wird sie damit auch gerechter. Frauenrat. Informationen für die frau: Green Economy. Gerechtigkeit oder Begrünung des Kapitalismus, (5): 2-3.
Roy, P.S., Roy, A., Joshi, P.K., Kale, M.P., Srivastava, V.K., Srivastava, S.K., Dwevidi, R.S., Joshi, C., Behera, M.D., Meiyappan, P., Sharma, Y., Jain, A.K., Singh, J.S., Palchowdhuri, Y., Ramachandran, R.M., Pinjarla, B., Chakravarthi, V., Babu, N., Gowsalya, M.S., Thiruvengadam, P., Kotteeswaran, M., Priya, V., Yelishetty, K.M.V.N., Maithani, S., Talukdar, G., Mondal, I., Rajan, K.S., Narendra, P.S., Biswal, S., Chakraborty, A., Padalia, H., Chavan, M., Pardeshi, S.N., Chaudhari, S.A., Anand, A., Vyas, A., Reddy, M.K., Ramalingam, M., Manonmani, R., Behera, P., Das, P., Tripathi, P., Matin, S., Khan, M.L., Tripathi, O.P., Deka, J., Kumar, P., Kushwaha, D. (2015). Development of Decadal (1985–1995–2005) Land Use and Land Cover Database for India. Remote Sensing, 7: 2401–2430. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/rs70302401.
Rupprecht, C.D.D. & Byrne, J.A. (2014). Informal urban greenspace: A typology and trilingual systematic review of its role for urban residents and trends in the literature. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 13: 597–611. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2014.09.002.
Rupprecht, C.D.D., Byrne, J.A., Garden, J.G. & Hero, J.-M. (2015). Informal urban green space: A trilingual systematic review of its role for biodiversity and trends in the literature. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 14: 883–908. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2015.08.009.
Rzeńca A. & Sobol A. (2020). Kierunki zmian polityki miejskiej w dobie wyzwań klimatycznych (Directions for urban policy changes in the face of climate challenges). in: Burchard-Dziubińska, M. & Prandecki, K. (Eds.) Zmiana klimatu - skutki dla polskiego społeczeństwa i gospodarki (Climate change - consequences for Polish society and economy – in Polish), Polska Akademia Nauk Komitet Prognoz „Polska 2000 Plus”.
Rzeńca, A., Sobol, A. & Ogórek, P. (eds.), 2021. Raport o stanie polskich miast. Środowisko i adaptacja do zmian klimatu (Report on the condition of Polish cities. Environment and adaptation to climate change – in Polish). Instytut Rozwoju Miast i Regionów, Warszawa – Kraków.
Sagan, I. (2000). Miasto. Scena konfliktów i współpracy (City. A scene of conflict and cooperation – in Polish). Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, Gdańsk.
Sikorska, D., Łaszkiewicz, E., Krauze, K. & Sikorski, P., (2020). The role of informal green spaces in reducing inequalities in urban green space availability to children and seniors. Environmental Science & Policy, 108: 144–154. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.007.
Sikorska, D., Wojnowska-Heciak, M., Heciak, J., Bukowska, J., Łaszkiewicz, E., Hopkins, R.J. & Sikorski, P. (2023). Rethinking urban green spaces for urban resilience. Do green spaces need adaptation to meet public post-covid expectations? Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 80: 127838. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ufug.2023.127838.
Smiraglia, D., Salvati, L., Egidi, G., Salvia, R., Giménez-Morera, A., & Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, R. (2021). Toward a New Urban Cycle? A Closer Look to Sprawl, Demographic Transitions and the Environment in Europe. Land, 10(2): 127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020127.
Stroud, S., Peacock, J. & Hassall, C. (2022). Vegetation-based ecosystem service delivery in urban landscapes: A systematic review. Basic and Applied Ecology, 61: 82-101. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2022.02.007.
Śleszyński, P. (2016). Lokalne planowanie przestrzenne w gminach wyludniających się (Local spatial planning in depopulating municipalities – in Polish). Biuletyn Komitetu Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania Kraju PAN, 263(null): 61–84.
Śleszyński, P. & Kukołowicz, P. (2021). Społeczno-gospodarcze skutki chaosu przestrzennego (Socio-economic effects of spatial chaos – in Polish). Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny. Available at: https://pie.net.pl/event/spoleczno-gospodarcze-skutki-chaosu-przestrzennego/.
Tse, T., Esposito, M. & Soufani, K. (2015). Why the circular economy matters. Available at: https://www.europeanbusinessreview.com/why-the-circular-economy-matters/ (Accessed: 23 September 2022).
United Nation. (2022). World Cities Report 2022: Envisaging the Future of Cities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. Available at: https://unhabitat.org/wcr/.
United Nations. (2016). Sustainable Urbanization Strategy. UNEP’s support to sustainable, inclusive and resilient cities in the developing World. United Nations, New Jork.
United Nations. (1992). Agenda 21 Earth Summit: United Nations Program of Action from Rio. New York.
Vasenev, V.I., Yaroslavtsev, A.M., Vasenev, I.I., Demina, S.A. & Dovltetyarova, E.A. (2019). Land-Use Change in New Moscow: First Outcomes after Five Years of Urbanization. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 12: 24–34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2019-89.
Webster, K., Blériot, J. & Johnson, C. (Eds.) (2013). A new dynamic: Effective business in a circular economy. Cowes, Isle of Wight: Ellen MacArthur Foundation.
Weng, Q. (2002). Land use change analysis in the Zhujiang Delta of China using satellite remote sensing, GIS and stochastic modelling. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(3): 273–284. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0509.
Xystrakis, F., Psarras, T. & Koutsias, N. (2017). A process-based land use/land cover change assessment on a mountainous area of Greece during 1945–2009: Signs of socio-economic drivers. Science of The Total Environment, 587–588: 360–370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.02.161.
Yan, Y., Liu, H. & He, C. (2021). How Does Urban Sprawl Affect Public Health? Evidence from Panel Survey Data in Urbanizing China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(19): 10181. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph181910181.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Marcin Feltynowski, Agnieszka Rzeńca, Agnieszka Palma
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Title, logo and layout of journal Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series are reserved trademarks of Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series.Stats
Number of views and downloads: 251
Number of citations: 0
