Skip to main content Skip to main navigation menu Skip to site footer
  • Register
  • Login
  • Menu
  • Home
  • Current
  • Archives
  • About
    • About the Journal
    • Submissions
    • Editorial Team
    • Privacy Statement
    • Contact
  • Register
  • Login

Dynamic Econometric Models

The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean
  • Home
  • /
  • The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean
  1. Home /
  2. Archives /
  3. Vol. 10 (2010) /
  4. Articles

The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean

Authors

  • Paweł Miłobędzki University of Gdańsk

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12775/DEM.2010.007

Keywords

term structure of interest rates, expectations hypothesis, asymmetric adjustment, TVECM, Polish interbank market, Warsaw Interbank Offered Rates

Abstract

The empirical analysis of the term structure of the Polish interbank rates has revealed that the short and the long rates from the whole spectrum of maturities have evolved almost accordingly to the expectations hypothesis. They have exhibited common stochastic trends, their spreads have had cointegrating properties as well as much predictive power. Of all interest rates considered it is only a 3 month rate that has asymmetrically been reverting to the mean.

References

Anderson H. M. (1997), Transaction Cost and Nonlinear Adjustement Towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 59, 465–484.

Bansal R., Zhou H. (2002), Term Structure of Interest Rates with Regime Shifts, Journal of Finance, 57, 1197–2043. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00487

Blangiewicz, M., Miłobędzki, P. (2008), Is there a Nonlinear Mean Reversion in the Term Structure of Interest Rates at the Polish Interbank Market? [in] Soares J. O, Pina J., Catalão-Lopes M. (eds.), New Developments in Financial Modelling. Cambridge Scholar Publishing, 77–94.

Blangiewicz, M., Miłobędzki, P. (2009), The Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure at the Polish Interbank Market, Przegląd Statystyczny, 1, 23–39.

Blangiewicz, M., Miłobędzki, P. (2010), The Term Structure of Interest Rates at the Polish Interbank Market. A VAR Approach [in] Milo W., Wdowiński P. (eds.), Financial Markets. Principles of Modeling Forecasting and Decision-Making, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, 179–209.

Campbell, J. Y., Shiller, R. J. (1987), Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models, Journal of Political Economy, 95, 1062–1088. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261502

Campbell, J. Y., Shiller, R. J. (1991), Yield Spreads and Interest Rates Movements: A Bird’s Eye View, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 495–514.

Caner, M., Hansen, B. E. (2001), Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 69, 1555–1596. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00257

Chan, K.S. (1993), Consistency and Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator of a Threshold Autoregressive Model, Annals of Statistics, 21, 520–533. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176349040

Cheung, Y.-W., Lai, K. S. (1995), Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 277–-280. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1392187

Clarida R. H., Sarno L., Taylor M. P., Valente G. (2006), The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Journal of Business, 79, 1193–1224.

Clements, M. P., Smith, J. (1997), The Performance of Alternative Forecasting Methods for SETAR Models, International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 463–475. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00017-4

Cuthbertson, K., Nitzsche, D. (2003), Long Rates, Risk Premia and Over-reaction Hypothesis, Economic Modelling, 20, 417–435. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0264-9993(02)00052-4

De Gooijer, J. G., Vidiella-i-Anguera, A. (2004), Forecasting Threshold Cointegrated Systems, International Journal of Forecasting, 20, 237–253. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2003.09.006

Dickey, D. A., Fuller, W. A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series Models: Tests and Implications, American Statistician, 40, 12-26.

Enders, W. (2001), Improved Critical Values for the Enders-Granger Unit-root Test, Applied Economic Letters, 8, 257–261.

Enders, W., Granger, C. W. J. (1998), Unit Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16, 304–311.

Enders, W., Siklos, P. L. (2001), Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 19, 166–176. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1198/073500101316970395

Engle, R. F., Granger, C. W. J. (1987), Cointegration and Error Correction Representation. Estimation and Testing, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.

Fisher, I. (1886), Appreciation and Interest, Publications of the American Economic Association, 11, 23–29, 88–92.

Fisher, I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, MacMillan, London.

Gray S.F. (1996), Modelling the Conditional Distribution of Interest Rates as a Regime-switching Process, Journal of Financial Economics, 42, 27–62.

Hall A.D., Anderson H.M., Granger C.W.J. (1992), A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields, Review of Economics and Statistics, 74, 116–126. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2109549

Hobijn, B., Franses, P., Ooms, M. (1998), Generalizations of the KPSS-test for Stationarity, Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Report 9802/A.

Hurn, A. S., Moody, T., Muscatelli, V. A. (1995), The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market, Oxford Economic Papers, 47, 418–436.

Konstantinou P. T. (2005), The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure. A Look at the Polish Interbank Market, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41, 70–91.

Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H., Potter, S. M. (1996), Impulse Response in Nonlinear Multivariate Models, Journal of Econometrics, 74, 119–147. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(95)01753-4

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., Shin, Y. (1992), Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.

Lutz, F. A. (1940), The Structure of Interest Rates, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 55, 36–63. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1881665

Pesaran, M. H., Pesaran, B. (1997), Microfit 4.0, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Regulamin fixingu stawek WIBOR i WIBID (2004), Polskie Stowarzyszenie Dealerów Bankowych Forex Polska, Warszawa.

Sarno L., Thornton D. L. (2003), The Dynamic Relationship Between the Federal Funds Rate and the Treasury Bill Rate: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Banking and Finance, 27, 1079–1110.

Sims, C. (1980), Macroeconomics and Reality, Econometrica, 48, 1–48. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1912017

Taylor M. P. (1992), Modelling the Yield Curve, Economic Journal, 102, 524–537. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2234289

Tong, H. (1983), Threshold Models in Non-Linear Time Series Analysis, Springer Verlag, New York. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-7888-4

Tzavalis, E., Wickens, M. (1998), A Re-Examination of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Reconciling the Evidence from Long-Run and Short-Run Tests, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 229–239.

Dynamic Econometric Models

Published

2010-07-17

How to Cite

1.
MIŁOBĘDZKI, Paweł. The Term Structure of the Polish Interbank Rates. A Note on the Symmetry of their Reversion to the Mean. Dynamic Econometric Models. Online. 17 July 2010. Vol. 10, pp. 83-95. [Accessed 17 May 2026]. DOI 10.12775/DEM.2010.007.
  • ISO 690
  • ACM
  • ACS
  • APA
  • ABNT
  • Chicago
  • Harvard
  • IEEE
  • MLA
  • Turabian
  • Vancouver
Download Citation
  • Endnote/Zotero/Mendeley (RIS)
  • BibTeX

Issue

Vol. 10 (2010)

Section

Articles

License

The journal provides an Open Access to its content based on the non-exclusive licence Creative Commons (CC BY-ND 4.0).

To enable the publisher to disseminate the author's work to the fullest extent, the author must agrees to the terms and conditions of the License Agreement with Nicolaus Copernicus University.

Stats

Number of views and downloads: 0
Number of citations: 0

Search

Search

Browse

  • Browse Author Index
  • Issue archive

User

User

Current Issue

  • Atom logo
  • RSS2 logo
  • RSS1 logo

Information

  • For Authors

Newsletter

Subscribe Unsubscribe

Tags

Search using one of provided tags:

term structure of interest rates, expectations hypothesis, asymmetric adjustment, TVECM, Polish interbank market, Warsaw Interbank Offered Rates
Up

Akademicka Platforma Czasopism

Najlepsze czasopisma naukowe i akademickie w jednym miejscu

apcz.umk.pl

Partners

  • Akademia Ignatianum w Krakowie
  • Akademickie Towarzystwo Andragogiczne
  • Fundacja Copernicus na rzecz Rozwoju Badań Naukowych
  • Instytut Historii im. Tadeusza Manteuffla Polskiej Akademii Nauk
  • Instytut Kultur Śródziemnomorskich i Orientalnych PAN
  • Instytut Tomistyczny
  • Karmelitański Instytut Duchowości w Krakowie
  • Ministerstwo Kultury i Dziedzictwa Narodowego
  • Państwowa Akademia Nauk Stosowanych w Krośnie
  • Państwowa Akademia Nauk Stosowanych we Włocławku
  • Państwowa Wyższa Szkoła Zawodowa im. Stanisława Pigonia w Krośnie
  • Polska Fundacja Przemysłu Kosmicznego
  • Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne
  • Polskie Towarzystwo Ludoznawcze
  • Towarzystwo Miłośników Torunia
  • Towarzystwo Naukowe w Toruniu
  • Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
  • Uniwersytet Komisji Edukacji Narodowej w Krakowie
  • Uniwersytet Mikołaja Kopernika
  • Uniwersytet w Białymstoku
  • Uniwersytet Warszawski
  • Wojewódzka Biblioteka Publiczna - Książnica Kopernikańska
  • Wyższe Seminarium Duchowne w Pelplinie / Wydawnictwo Diecezjalne „Bernardinum" w Pelplinie

© 2021- Nicolaus Copernicus University Accessibility statement Shop