The Synchronization of Regional Business Cycles with Nationwide Cycles

Authors

  • Milda Maria Burzała Poznań University of Economics

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12775/DEM.2009.006

Keywords

spectral analysis, cospectral analysis, business cycle, synthetic indicator

Abstract

This paper attempts to assess the level of synchronization between the business cycles of Poland’s regions and those of the country as a whole. The measure of economic activity was an index of total industrial output sold, recorded monthly from January 1999 to December 2008, adjusted for seasonal and random fluctuations. The analysis of dominant business cycles was performed using spectral analysis. To assess the synchronization of cycles, characteristics of cospectral analysis were used: coefficient of coherence, amplitude intensification and phase difference. In the conclusion, an attempt is made to construct a synthetic indicator as a means of ranking the regions by degree of business cycle synchronization.

References

Dudek, S., Pachucki, D., Walczyk, K. (2008), Synchronizacja cyklu koniunkturalnego polskiej gospodarki z krajami strefy euro w kontekście struktury tych gospodarek, http://www.nbpnews.pl/r/nbpnews/Pliki_PDF/NBP/Publikacje/analityczne/irg_sghP.pdf

Skrzypczyński, P. (2006), Analiza synchronizacji cykli koniunkturalnych w strefie euro, Materiały i Studia NBP, vol. 210, National Bank of Poland Department of Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis, Warsaw.

Skrzypczyński, P. (2008), Wahania aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce i strefie euro, Materiały i Studia NBP, vol. 227, National Bank of Poland Department of Macroeconomic and Structural Analysis, Warsaw.

Talaga, L., Zieliński, Z. (1986), Analiza spektralna w modelowaniu ekonometrycznym, PWN, Warsaw.

Zeliaś, A. (1988), Metody statystyki międzynarodowej, PWE, Warsaw.

Dynamic Econometric Models

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Published

2009-07-18

How to Cite

1.
BURZAŁA, Milda Maria. The Synchronization of Regional Business Cycles with Nationwide Cycles. Dynamic Econometric Models. Online. 18 July 2009. Vol. 9, pp. 61-72. [Accessed 1 July 2025]. DOI 10.12775/DEM.2009.006.

Issue

Vol. 9 (2009)

Section

Articles

License

The journal provides an Open Access to its content based on the non-exclusive licence Creative Commons (CC BY-ND 4.0).

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