THE PRESENT-DAY CLIMATE OF EASTERN EUROPE AS VIEWED IN THE CONTEXT OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION CHANGE

Vazira F. Martazinova, Vladislav E. Tymofeyev, Elena K. Ivanova, Dar’ya Y. Chayka

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/2289

Abstract


Climate change over the territory of the Atlantic-European sector during the recent decades is studied with reference to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The classification of synoptic patterns (from the class of most probably to the class of least probable fields) is given for winter and summer for the last three decades, starting from 1974-1983. The synoptic pattern of the most probable class of field sea-level pressure shows high pressure over Europe in 1974-2005, which from decade to decade occupies more and more territory in summer and winter. The high temporal stability of predominant synoptic patterns is responsible for long-lived events of extreme warm and dry weather in winter and in summer for heat waves and droughts. The synoptic patterns corresponding to such dangerous weather conditions as extreme cold, strong precipitation, glaze ice, strong winds, hail etc. are discussed as well.

Keywords


warming; atmospheric circulation; etalon MSLP field; synoptic pattern; extreme weather

Full Text:

PDF

References


Bagrov N.A., 1969, On the classification of synoptic processes, Meteorology and Hydrology, 5, 3–12. (In Russian).

Beniston M., Diaz H. F., 2004, The 2003 heat wave as an example of summers in a greenhouse climate? Observations and climate model simulations for Basel, Switzerland, J. Global and Planetary Change, 44, 73–81.

Briffa K.R., Jones P.D., Kelly P.M., 1990, Principal component analysis of the Lamb catalogue of daily weather types: Part 2, Seasonal frequencies and update to 1987, Int. J. Climatol., 10, 549–563.

Domonkos P., Kysel J., Piotrowicz K., Petrovic P., Likso T., 2003, Variability of extreme temperature events in south-central Europe during the 20th century and its relationship with large-scale circulation, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 987–1010.

Jones P.D., Hulme M., Briffa K.R., 1993, A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 655–663.

Jung T., Hilmer M., Ruprecht E., Klepp ek S., Gulev S., Zolina O., 2002, Characteristics of the Recent Eastward Shift of Interannual NAO Variability, J. Climate, 16, 3371–3382.

IPCC, 1996, Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp.

Hurrell, J.W., Kushn ir Y., Visbeck M., Ottersen G., 2003, An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The North Atlantic Oscillation: Climate Significance and Environmental Impact, J.W. Hurrell, Y. Kushnir, G. Ottersen, and M. Visbeck (eds.), Geophys. Monograph. Ser., 134, 1–35.

Huth R., 2001, Disaggregating climatic trends by classification of circulation patterns, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 135–153.

Girs A.A., 1964, On the creation of a united classification of large-scale atmospheric processes on the North Hemisphere, Meteorology and Hydrology, 4, 43–47 (In Russian).

Kats A.L., 1959, Circulation index as indicator of zonal and meridional synoptic processes. Meteorology and Hydrology, no 5, 3–8 (In Russian).

Lamb H.H., 1961, Climate changes in historic period studied by means of diagrams and circulation charts, [in:] Solar variations, climatic change and related geophysical problems. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 95, 1, 44–86.

Lozán J. L., 2001, Influence of the Climate on the History of Humankind, [in:] Lozán J.L., Grasl H., Hupfer P. (eds.), Climate of the 21st Century: Changes and Risks, 86–156.

Lynch A., Uotila P., Cassano J., 2006, Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, part 2: Antarctic. Int, J. Climatol., 26, 1181–1199.

Martazinova V.F., 1993, Displacements of semi-permanent centres of action and variations of the regional climate. Proc. Int. Symp. Precipitation and Evaporation, v. 2, Bratislava, 210–213.

Martazinova V.F., 2005, The classification of synoptic patterns by method of analogs, J. Environ. Sci. Eng., 7, 61–65.

Roeckner E., 2001, Changes in the General Circulation of the Atmosphere, [in:] Lozán J.L., Grasl H., Hupfer P. (eds.), Climate of the 21st Century: Changes and Risks, 206–349.

Spellman G., 2000, The application of an objective weather-typing system to Iberian Peninsula, Weather Rev., 55, 375–385.

Sverdlik T.A., 1999, Evolution of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere during the second phase of the climate warming. Proc. of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Research Institute, 247, 63–75 (In Russian).

Trenberth, K.E., Jones P.D., Ambenje P., Bojariu R., Easterling D., Klein Tank A., Parker D., Rahimzadeh F., Renwick J.A., Rusticucci M., Soden B., Zhai P., 2007, Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change, [in:] Solomon S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK and New York, NY, USA, 236–432.

Wilks, D., 1995, Statistical methods in atmospheric sciences. Cambridge Academic Press, 351 pp.

Yarnal B., 1984, A procedure for the classification of synoptic weather maps from gridded atmospheric pressure surface data, Computers and Geosciences, 10, 397–410.








ISSN 2080-7686 (print)
ISSN 2300-8490 (online)

 

 

Partnerzy platformy czasopism